Before a single game was played, gamblers across the world were betting their hard earned cash on who they thought would win the Super Bowl. The bookies and casinos provide odds for you to do so at anytime. You can bet on the next Super Bowl before the previous one ends. I am not sure when the best time to bet is, but I’m starting to think that before the season starts might not be it.
Today we will look at the five pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl and assess how good your chances are to cash a winning ticket if you bet some of your cash on them.
Denver Broncos 11/2
Q: Was this a good bet?
A: Probably. The Broncos are currently 9/2 to win the Super Bowl so betting on them today wouldn’t earn you as much cash as it would’ve during the summer. Peyton Manning is still the quarterback, the defense seems to be improved, and they proved that they can compete with the Seattle Seahawks, and they did so in Seattle.
Q: What remains for them?
A: The Broncos will play six home games and seven road games. The Broncos have at least six games where they should be double-digit favorites. Two games against the San Diego Chargers will probably decide the AFC West and a week 16 game against the Cincinnati Bengals could decide home-field in the AFC.
Q: Is there any one thing that could ruin my bet?
A: Yes. If Peyton Manning gets injured you can rip up your ticket. This is an obvious statement, but teams have won the Super Bowl with their back-up quarterback in the past. In today’s NFL, it seems like a long shot. If you are looking for a less obvious answer, I would be concerned if the Broncos didn’t win the AFC West. Bad things seem to happen to Manning in playoff games and an extra one for the Broncos without the benefit of even one home game would be problematic. Manning has played in four AFC Championship games and is 3-1. He is 3-0 at home and 0-1 on the road.
Seattle Seahawks 6/1
Q: Was this a good bet?
A: Yes. The Seahawks have the best chance to repeat as champion in years. The team is young, deep, and confident. Russell Wilson is still getting better each time he steps on the field, their defense is one of the best in the league, and their home field advantage is as intimidating as there is. The Seahawks have won 19 of their last 20 home games and will be a huge favorite to return to the Super Bowl if the NFC Championship game is played in Seattle.
Q: What remains for the Seahawks?
A: The Seahawks will play six home games and seven road games and have only five games against 2013 playoff teams. The Seahawks still have all six of their division games including a Thanksgiving night showdown against the San Francisco 49ers.
Q: Is there any one thing that could ruin my bet?
A: In the case of the Seahawks, I don’t think so. Losing Wilson would certainly hurt their chances, but the Seahawks are built to win low scoring games. Not having home field advantage would hurt because the Seahawks are occasionally ordinary on the road. Still, defense travels better than offense. The Seahawks are built to handle adversity but if my money was on them to win the Super Bowl I wouldn’t want them to have to prove it.
New England Patriots 8/1 
Q: Was this a good bet?
A: No. It was a terrible bet. I could see why you made it. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been dependable contenders since 2001, but the Patriots haven’t won the Lombardi Trophy since 2005. The Patriots lack weapons on offense, Tom Brady has looked old, and the offensive line is terrible. Only 15% of teams that start the season 1-3 even make the playoffs at all.
Q: What remains for the Patriots?
A: The Patriots have seven home games and five road games left on their schedule. The Patriots will play four of their next five at home and still have four night games on the schedule.
Q: Is their any hope?
A: There is a glimmer of hope. The Patriots might play in the worst division in football and despite starting 1-3 they still might be the favorite to win another AFC East championship. The Patriots still have five division games remaining and finish the season against the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills. Tom Brady is a first ballot hall of fame player, and no one would be surprised if he turned the Patriots season around.
San Francisco 49ers 9/1
Q: Was this a good bet?
A: It wasn’t as good as laying your money out for Broncos or Seahawks, but it’s considerably better than any money on the Patriots. The 49ers are seventh against the pass and second against the run on defense and their offense rushes for almost 140 yards a game. Unlike the Patriots, the 49ers play in a ruggedly tough division. We all know about the Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals are 3-0 and have already beat the 49ers once.
Q: What remains for the 49ers?
A: The 49ers play six road games and six home games. The remaining schedule is brutal. The 49ers have six games left agains 2013 playoff teams including their Thanksgiving showdown against the Seahawks and a trip to Denver for a Sunday Night game against the Broncos.
Q: Is their any one thing that could ruin my bet?
A: There isn’t many guarantees in the NFL, but I would be willing to guarantee that the 49ers won’t win the Super Bowl if Blaine Gabbert is their starting quarterback. I apologize to Mrs. Gabbert and everyone in the Gabbert family, but do you think Blaine could win a playoff game in Seattle? Philadelphia? Do you think Gabbert could win a playoff game in Santa Clara?
New Orleans Saints 9/1
Q: Was this a good bet?
A: Does pizza taste good covered in tooth paste? You would have to be a nut to think so and maybe crazier to think the 2014 Saints have any chance to win the Super Bowl.
Q: What remains for the Saints?
A: The Saints have seven home games and five road games left on their schedule. The Saints have five games left against their NFC South rivals and four more night games. The Saints have lost seven of their last eight road games, but Carolina is the only road game left on their schedule against one of last year’s playoff teams.
Q: Is their any hope?
A: I detailed reasons for optimism surrounding the Saints in my last column but that was written before they humiliated themselves against the Cowboys. Despite how bad that loss was, a true optimist could make the case that it was exactly what the Saints needed. The Cowboys punched the Saints directly in the mouth and if that doesn’t wake them up nothing will.
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