NFL Week 8: AFC East Weekly Buzz

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Buffalo Bills

Since Kyle Orton has taken over as the starter over E.J. Manuel, he has developed chemistry with two young targets.

The first is the obvious in rookie Sammy Watkins, as Orton has targeted the young receiver 29 times in the past three games, including 12 against Detroit and a season-high 14 versus Minnesota last Sunday, an average of 9.66 times per game. In the first four games of the season, Watkins was targeted 32 times by E.J. Manuel, an average of 8 per game, but when you factor in that Watkins’ second game with Orton was against Darrelle Revis and the Patriots’ No.1 ranked pass defense (Watkins was only targeted three times), Orton appears, for the most part, far more willing to go to Watkins more than Manuel.

Though he is going to Watkins more, Orton has been more efficient with his attempts compared to Manuel, completing 18 of 29 passes (62%) for 236 yards (13.11 yards per catch) and two touchdowns, both scored against the Vikings. In Manuel’s 32 targets toward Watkins, there were 17 completions (53%), 207 yards (12.17), and two touchdowns.

The other player is a bit of a surprise: Chris Hogan. Despite being behind Watkins, Robert Woods, Mike Williams, and Marquise Goodwin in the receiver rotation, Hogan has gone from having zero targets in the opening four games to 14 in the past three games, resulting in 12 catches (85.7%), 162 yards, and a touchdown.

The element of trust has been the key, as despite mistakes by both players (Watkins and Orton misconnected on a hitch route that was intercepted and returned for a pick six in Detroit, while Hogan had a redzone fumble on Sunday), Orton has looked to both in key situations. Hogan caught a 21 yard pass against the Lions to help the conversion of a 1st and 30 situation, caught a fourth-quarter touchdown against New England, and had a 28 yard leaping catch to set up Watkins’ game-winner on Sunday.

With a New York Jet defense that has a strong front seven, but is last in the league in passing touchdowns allowed (18), there should still be plenty of opportunities for Watkins and Hogan to make plays, especially if Orton continues to throw heavily in their direction. Going to Watkins often needs to be in the gameplan, as Buffalo is 1-3 when he is targeted nine times or less, and 3-0 when he is thrown to on 11 or more occasions.

NFL: Preseason-Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins

Since a very rough start to the season that led to speculation that his starting job may be in jeopardy, Ryan Tannehill has looked far better.

In the first three games of the season, a 1-2 start for the Dolphins, Tannehill was 70 of 124 (56.45%), 624 yards (208 yards per game), four touchdowns and two interceptions at 5.03 yards per attempt. Since, the third-year quarterback is 68 of 94 (72.34%), 799 yards (266.3 yards per game), six touchdowns and three interceptions at 8.5 yards per attempt, and has also had more of an impact in the running game, as after only 8 carries for 18 yards (2.33 yards per carry) in the first three games, the one-time college wide receiver at Texas A&M has 14 carries for 132 yards (9.43 yards per carry).

When taking a look at overall efficiency, it is clear that Tannehill has been a much better player, with his QBR’s for games 1-3 being 34.9, 27.3, and 21.2, and games 4-6 being 94, 71.1, and 93.9. Some of it is better pass protection with additions like Branden Albert and rookie Ja’Wuan James on the offensive line, as Tannehill has been sacked 14 times this season, on pace for 37 sacks, much lower than the 58 he suffered last season.

But the use of the zone-read has been a huge help, as he has been more comfortable out of the shotgun formation, and his speed in the open field is deceptive enough to force teams to be wary of it. With deep targets like Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline forcing teams to play over the top, Tannehill has utilized hybrid tight end Charles Clay down the middle of the field, with 9 catches on 14 targets for 125 yards (13.89 yards per catch) and a touchdown in the last three games, as well as rookie receiver Jarvis Landry, who has 10 catches on 12 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Miami will need this version of Tannehill, as after a game at Jacksonville this weekend, the Dolphins will have to play contenders like San Diego, Detroit, and Denver in upcoming weeks, along with divisional match-ups. For the first time in a while, it appears Miami fans have reason to be confident that the former No.9 pick can play at a high level consistently, but for how long still needs to be answered.

Percy Harvin

New York Jets

Coming off of greatly aiding the Seattle Seahawks win a Super Bowl last February in an explosive performance, few saw last Friday’s trade to the Jets as even a remote possibility.

Yet, New York was able to acquire the talented playmaker who had been limited to 22 catches for 133 yards, both by teams paying extra attention to him, and an offense that didn’t often take downfield chances with him. As for how he will be used in the Big Apple, the New York Daily News’ Manish Mehta gathered the following from what head coach Rex Ryan said on Wednesday.

With Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley in the fold at receiver along with Harvin, the two-headed combination of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson in the backfield, and the two tight end tandem of rookie Jace Amaro and Jeff Cumberland, it appears the Jets are doing all they can to help out Geno Smith at quarterback.

In his last two games before the move, against very good defenses in the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, Smith has only one turnover, and thrown three touchdowns. His best recent showing was against the Patriots last Thursday, where he was 20 of 34 for 226 yards and a touchdown, leading a potential game-tying drive, and a drive to set up a late field goal that was blocked.

With this weekend’s game against Buffalo, followed by a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to face Kansas City, and then a home game against the Steelers before a bye, a last-ditch effort to get hot and make a run at the postseason would have to begin this Sunday. Thus, Harvin’s contributions need to be immediate to prove if Smith is capable of being the team’s quarterback for the long haul by performing well the rest of the season.

Photo by Ed Runyon

New England Patriots

After linebacker and team captain Jerod Mayo was lost for the season against Buffalo, there could be another long-term absence on a defense that already allowed over 400 yards of offense to the Jets last Thursday night, according to the Boston Globe’s Shalise Manza Young.

While the team acquired 2011 second-round pick Akeem Ayers for a very low price, there will still be continuity and communication issues, something a high-power Chicago Bears offense can take advantage of Sunday.

On the season, Jones has 4.5 sacks, including 1 in each of the past two games against the Bills and Jets, and helped build a good pass rush with Rob Ninkovich on the other side. Now, however, it will likely be all up to Ninkovich to get pressure on the quarterback, and though he has 4 sacks on the year, 3 were against Buffalo two Sundays ago.

With the combination of Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall towering at receiver, Martellus Bennett at tight end, and Matt Forte at running back, it will be up to a talented secondary led by Darrelle Revis to limit the effectiveness of quarterback Jay Cutler. It will be a much tougher task if Jamie Collins can’t cover Forte 1 on 1 in pass situations, and if Cutler has a lot of time to throw the ball.

However, New England is tied for second in takeaways with 14, and having home-field advantage may also be a huge plus for the Patriots in this matchup.

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