No. 6 San Diego Chargers (9-7) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (13-3)
Most teams haven’t thought twice about getting into the playoffs,they entered the post season with weeks to spare, but the San Diego Chargers had to win four straight, and after last week’s upset over the Bengals are on a five game win streak. This is the third meeting between the teams and both have won one, San Diego took the later in week 15.
The Chargers are now entering Mile High Stadium, and facing not only the Broncos as a team, but Peyton Manning and nearly a 10 point spread. Yep, they beat the Broncos a few weeks ago, but Denver was without Wes Welker and Dominique Cromartie. Even worse is that Ryan Mathews is banged up, and had an early exit in last week’s game against Cincinnati, due to an ankle injury. These are aspects that teams just have to deal with though as the season progresses toward February. Mike McCoy stated that “Going on the road in a playoff game is not going to be easy, regardless of who you’re playing.”
One of the biggest turnarounds in their last five games has been their running game. With an average of 170.2 yards per game. Also, they are 10-2 when running for more than 102 yards, and 0-5 when they don’t. Again this looms large in the health of Ryan Mathews, as their running game is also what will keep the Broncos offense on the sidelines. Can players like Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown, or Le’Ron McClain get the job done if Mathews is out? In Cincinnati they looked horrible, as all three running backs tried to get first down on third short, and tried to punch it in from the goal-line, both attempts ended in failure.
In the Chargers win in week 15, it was because their running game was spot on. Mathews had 29 carries for 127 yards, in the end San Diego finished with 177 yards rushing. Last week they had 196 yards on the ground. The main aspect is to run like the wind, and finish drives with touchdowns. San Diego will have to keep the tides turning and Philip Rivers will have to put on another outstanding performance. The Broncos defense can be exposed, but can the Chargers be the team to rip back the sheets?
As for the Denver Broncos it has been one fun ride. They enter the playoffs as the season number one seed, and only managed to lose three games, all to playoff teams (Colts, Patriots, Chargers). There is no doubt that this offense runs on the octane of Manning fuel. They may give a change of direction to either Knowshon Moreno or Montee Ball, but the world knows its Peyton’s place.
Denver has outscored opponents by an average of 20.4 points in their first seven wins at home, before their loss to San Diego, and the Broncos only finished with 20 points in the loss, which was their lowest point total of the season. The Broncos have averaged 37.9 points on the season, which is the highest for any team in the Super Bowl era. Denver has only been held to under 30 points three times, two of those were against the Chargers.
The Broncos are looking for the Manning that showed up in the first meeting against San Diego. Peyton threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns, what they won’t be looking for is another collapse in a Divisional Playoff match-up. Last year, against the Ravens, they gave up a 70 yard touchdown reception with 31 seconds left in the game to tie it. Baltimore went on to eventually win in overtime.
Broncos are going to win by Peyton Manning throwing the ball. The future Hall of Famer had 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns this year, and with Welker returning it will give him another piece he didn’t have in the loss to the Chargers. Welker finished second to Danny Woodhead with 18 receptions in the red zone, Woodhead had 19. The return of Wes also opens the playing field for Demaryius Thomas who had 14 touchdowns, Julius Thomas (12 touchdowns), or Eric Decker with 11 scores. But, Manning has not been in the playoffs what he is in the regular season. He has only missed the playoffs twice, but somehow has had eight one and done post season games.
The Chargers are going to win by controlling the clock, and pressuring Manning every chance they get. Peyton likes to ride on smooth surfaces, and is accustomed to rough patches. Even though it is hard to prove concretely, it seems that Peyton melts when the heat gets to boiling temperatures. He puts great amount of responsibility on his shoulders in the post season, and collapses when it doesn’t go in the direction he likes. While pressuring Manning, it will limit Denver and their big play offense, and the long drives down field.
This is a game that must be contained for the Chargers to have any chance of winning. If the Broncos get a lead more than 17 points, it will be all over for San Diego, as their offense just is not good enough to chip away against a comfortable Peyton Manning. I just don’t see the Chargers doing much in this game. The loss to Baltimore taught Denver not to treat anything lightly, and with the season that Peyton had, it will be near impossible to see an upset in Mile High. Denver wins easily 34-14.
