Thoughts and expectations for Bills vs Colts

ProPlayerInsiders’s Buffalo Bills beat writers Matthew Schaefer and Michael Tombolesi team up to tackle everything Bills as the team gets set to open the season tomorrow afternoon against the Indianapolis Colts at Ralph Wilson Stadium. 

Matthew Schaefer: The Buffalo Bills quarterback situation took all summer to play out, but the Bills believe they found their man in Tyrod Taylor, who will be making his first NFL start this weekend.  During the preseason we all saw a guy who is a freak of an athlete, with great wheels who also surprised a lot of people with his ability to pass from the pocket.  What are you expecting out of Taylor and the rest of the Bills offense this weekend?  What are the keys for the offense if they want to be successful this season?

Michael Tombolesi: The biggest thing that stands out to me for the Bills offense on Sunday is just how poorly the Colts defense played a season ago.  Greg Roman’s misleading offensive packages should confuse the Colts on defense, especially on the ground game.  As it is well documented, the Bills will want to go to the “ground and pound” approach this season, and I think Sunday will be indicative of that.  Look for LeSean McCoy and the Bills’ backfield to take the pressure off Taylor in his first start and for Taylor to make more plays with his legs than his arms.  As the season progresses I foresee Taylor growing more comfortable in the pocket and taking more chances down the field. Flipping the topic over to the defense, do you see the suspension of Marcell Dareus for the opener impacting this game in a big way?

MS: Yes it will have a big impact, and this is no way a knock on the players the Bills have behind him on the depth chart; it’s just that you can’t lose one of the best defensive tackles in the game and expect to be just fine.  He is able to do things from his position that almost no one else can do.  The good thing for that defensive line is the other three player makers will suit up and are healthy (Jerry Hughes, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams).  With Rex Ryan’s knowledge on defense, I expect him to turn to Kyle to sort of take the spot of Dareus.  Dareus is just so good at taking on blockers and creating chaos in running lanes.  Williams is the next best player on the team at getting penetration in the backfield from the DT spot.  I’m expecting them to get creative with their looks to balance out the loss of Dareus (like running a good amount of 3-4 looks for example).  The Bills will still be able to get pressure on the quarterback, from sending blitzes from all over the place, but they will definitely miss the big man in the middle, especially against the run.  They might be ok at the end of the day if they still can create pressure on Andrew Luck, but it will be a big challenge they have to overcome.  Hopefully there is enough talent on that side of the ball to balance the loss out.

Sticking with the defense, the secondary is getting a big first test against one of the game’s best passers in Luck.  Leodis McKelvin is still banged up, meaning rookie corner Ronald Darby is getting his first NFL start.  In a Rex Ryan defense, the corners are expected to play a lot of Cover-0, leaving them alone on an island with their man.  With the Colts weapons (Hilton, Johnson, etc), does the prospect of a rookie corner against Luck turn into a disaster for Buffalo, especially with one who struggled during training camp and the preseason?

MT: I think the key to this matchup (Luck vs the Bills secondary) comes down to when, and how, the Bills blitz Luck.  As you said, Ryan plays a defense where he trusts his corners in constant one-on-one situations which often means he is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the quarterback.  Andrew Luck was one of the best quarterbacks facing blitzes last season, throwing 18 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions.  So if the Bills blitz at inopportune times, this will cause problems not only for the rookie Darby, but also Stephon Gilmore, who will likely be matching up against the speedster T.Y. Hilton.  Luck will target Darby early and often, but if the Bills are successful in applying sacks and, almost equally as important, hits on the quarterback, a lot of pressure will be taken off the Bills secondary.  Darby’s ability to show his confidence throughout the preseason, regardless if he had just been beaten on the previous play, will be crucial to his success Sunday.  He is going to get beat on some plays, as this is the NFL.  It’s all about how he bounces back from tough beats, especially when operating on an island.

Going back to the offense, what do you make of the myriad of offseason additions the Bills now boast?  As Roman showed his unorthodox offensive strategy during his time in San Francisco, where do you see Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy fitting in to this offense?

MS: 299, 286, 292 and 266 What are those numbers?  The amount of touches Frank Gore had in Roman’s time with the 49ers. Like you stated, this is going to be a run-first team, and the off-season acquisitions of players like Taylor, McCoy, and Percy Harvin are going to allow Roman to come out in a lot of unique formations.  LeSean McCoy is going to be a workhorse, and I expect him to be a little bit more involved in the passing game than Gore was.  While Bills’ fans have seen a ground-and-pound approach in the past, this offense is going to be so much different in the way the ball carriers are going to be getting the ball.  Like in San Francisco, Taylor allows Roman the ability to constantly fool the defense, as an athletic quarterback is that much more of an asset to his team.  It is going to allow the Bills to run a lot of different zone reads and misdirection plays that will keep the defense on their toes.  Once Taylor gets comfortable in the offense and they really just let him go out there and play, you can turn all those zone read plays into pass plays with routes off of them as well.  The defense is going to think it’s a read option and in one quick motion, Taylor can pull the ball out of his half backs stomach and drop it in right over the top of the linebackers.  Despite it being run first, I really think this is going to be an underrated offense to watch, in terms of just the talent at the skill positions.  They are going to get the ball in guys like Harvin and Sammy Watkins hands, and just let them make plays with it.

If Taylor is as good as he’s been so far in limited action, and the offensive line holds up, the Bills should have enough to win a lot of football games. To get back to tomorrow’s game, what is the biggest thing you are looking for out of the Bills and what are your keys to their success?

MT- The biggest keys to this game for me are two-fold: disrupting the timing and comfort of potential MVP candidate Andrew Luck and developing a sound running attack to take pressure of Taylor in his first start.  If the Bills pass rush can knock around Luck, they will be successful.  If Luck can decipher the Bills’ blitz packages before the snap, he will make them pay dearly.  On the offensive side of the ball, it really is as simple as developing a ground game.  Being able to rush the passer and having success on the ground have been keys to almost every game in football history and will hold true on Sunday.  Although the Bills are the talk of the town in Buffalo, and Ryan has finally made the team relevant, I think it will take some time for this team to gel.  My prediction is that the Colts are victorious, 24-14 in a hard fought game at the Ralph.

Who will win this game, and why?

MS: Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to be rocking, and the Bills will definitely feel the presence of home field advantage.  You’re right, the Bills have been the talk of the town and it seems the fans are just as ready to get the season underway as the players and coaches are.  This is a huge test out of the gate though, as the Colts are one of the best teams in the AFC.  If the Bills want to win, they need to get pressure on Luck, get them off rhythm and make it a tough day overall for the Indianapolis offense.  That of course is a lot easier said than done, and even against the Bills, the Colts are going to be able to move the ball and have some sort of success.  The Bills think they are right there and this will be a huge test to judge just how far they have come over the past few years. Andrew Luck just finds a way to always get it done though.  I’m taking Indy too, 31-24.