The New York Jets (8-7) will head down south Sunday, taking on the Miami Dolphins (5-10) in what will most likely be the last game played for both teams until September. That is, unless everything goes in the Jets’ favor.
The AFC East rivals last faced off in October, a decisive 24-6 New York victory that ended a three-game losing streak and looked to be a turning point in the season. They won the next two, topping the Chargers and Bills, but then dug themselves a hole with losses to the Patriots and Broncos. The Jets were 5-5 and most likely needed to win five of their remaining six games to make the playoffs.
And it looks like they would pull it off… they convincingly won their next three games against the Bills, Redskins, and Chiefs. But then they went to Philly, and the Eagles absolutely dismantled the Jets to the tune of 45-19. They were lucky to still control a playoff spot, the last seed in the AFC, needing only to beat the Giants at home and Dolphins on the road to secure a wild card. But in what was probably the most disappointing Jets performance of the season, they were defeated 29-14, stunned by their hometown rivals.
The Dolphins’ season has been a very different story. They lost their first seven games, reminiscent of 2007, a year in which they picked up their first and only win in week 15. But they’re 5-3 since that losing streak and look like another team.
Running back Reggie Bush is being utilized much more effectively as they have tried to cater the offense to his strengths. This past Sunday, they fell just short of a win over the New England Patriots, coming out of the gate strong and putting up the first 17 points of the game before a second half comeback ruined their day.
Don’t expect this game to look anything like the first matchup between the Jets and Dolphins a couple months back. The Fins will put up much more of a fight. But so will Gang Green, as they can’t make the playoffs without a win (…and help). Mark Sanchez has heard a lot from his detractors since Sunday, and he might be worried that he’s essentially playing for his job after rumors started swirling that the Jets have come to the realization that he isn’t a long-term answer.
But the pass attach should be conservative from the Jets, as they threw the ball 59 times last week and saw less than encouraging results. “Ground and pound” used to be the name of the game, and despite how good the Dolphins have been at stopping the run this season (third in the league, allowing just 93.4 yards per game), they need to pound the rock all game. The Miami defensive front will get worn down if the Jets can control the clock and the ball.
As for the Dolphins, the game plan should be pretty simple and it should involve a lot of Reggie Bush. They’ve been most effective this season when running the ball, and the Jets’ biggest weakness on the defensive side of the ball is their line. Letting Matt Moore have too much freedom could mean trouble. He threw two interceptions the last time he played New York, so a conservative approach from Miami will give them the best chance to win.
Reggie Bush is arguably playing the best football of his career. He’s rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games and averaged 6.3 yards in those games. His surge of involvement in the offense has led to increased success for a Dolphins squad that looked like they couldn’t compete with high school team, let alone the New England Patriots, just two months ago. The more they can get the ball in Bush’s hands, the more damage they’ll do against a very mediocre Jets defense.
The Jets need losses by the Raiders (at San Diego), Titans (at Houston), and Bengals (at Baltimore) and a win of their own to secure the sixth seed and make the playoffs for the third consecutive year and the third year of the Ryan-Sanchez era. Though it isn’t exactly a likely scenario, crazier things have happened in the NFL, and the Jets have managed to “back in” to the playoffs the last two seasons.
These teams have a lot of history and always play each other with 100 percent effort. It should be a hard-fought battle down south, and my prediction is a Dolphins win. The Jets have looked dismal the last two weeks and there is no reason to think they’ll turn it around, especially on the road considering they’ve struggled against the Fins in recent matchups.
The Dolphins are playing the best they have in a long time, and if they could keep it close against the Pats, they should have no problem beating the Jets, no matter what Rex Ryan tells you.
