How the Falcons Will Beat Seattle

The table has been set for the Divisional Playoffs. For the Atlanta Falcons, fresh off of their bye-week, are to play host to the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks’ wildcard win over the Detroit Lions, was less like a play-off game and more like a scrimmage. Seattle had the privilege of playing against a quarterback like Matt Stafford, a running back like Zach Zenner and a wide-out like Golden Tate. Now, one isn’t going to bash the three mentioned as they are all NFL talents, worthy of sporting a jersey on game-day but – they are not on the level of what Atlanta offers at those positions.

The running back duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman provide the most complete one-two punch an NFL backfield has to offer. With Freeman averaging 4.8 yards a carry and Coleman averaging 4.4 – the drop off, is not noticeable and neither does it change the offensive strategy of the Falcons. Going against a Seattle defense that allows 3.5 yards a carry, the Falcons know they have to do more than just run up the gut against Seattle. What is odd about Seattle’s rush defense though is that they’ve allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, which puts them in the bottom third of the NFL in that category (Freeman and Coleman have combined for 19).

The pass defense of the Seattle Seahawks looks impressive from a numbers standpoint: allowing on 223 passing yards a game, hold opposing qb’s to a quarterback rating of 84.5 and have only allowed 15 passing touchdowns against them. Let’s look deeper into that though. . . For such a “storied” secondary – they’ve only nabbed 11 interceptions on the year. Looking at their schedule they’ve only played four, of what you would call “top tier” quarterbacks this season in Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan – losing against the first two names and winning against the latter two.

The win against New England still saw Brady with a 71% completion percentage and over 300 yards passing and the win against Atlanta came after Seattle was on a bye-week. Atlanta meanwhile was on their second away game, the previous one being a grueling win at Denver (a better defense than Seattle). Even with that, Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes in the third quarter (including a 30 and a 40 yard touchdown pass) but they ultimately ended up losing by two points.

Matt Ryan is en-route to being the NFL’s MVP and deservedly so. He has posted career highs in touchdown passes (38), QB rating (117.1), completion percentage (69.9%) and yards per attempt (9.3). Ryan finally has a supporting cast of players who have names that don’t have either “Julio” or “Jones” on their driver’s licenses. And although Julio has had a remarkable season (over 1400 yards and 83 receptions), Matt Ryan has been putting all his guys to use. Of Matt Ryan’s 38 touchdown passes only 6 have seen Jones on the receiving end of them. Ryan has been able to dissect whatever his opposition throws at him in order to find the best window of opportunity. This becomes easier for Matt Ryan against the Seahawks this time around, because of the injury to All-Pro safety Earl Thomas will be watching the game from the sidelines.

Defensively, fans of the Falcons won’t brag about it, but the bottom line is this: the defense allows 25 points a game and they offense puts up 33 points a game – do the math. Especially considering the Seahawks only put up 22 points a game – this plays right into the hands of Atlanta. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks in 2013 and 2014, which includes a Super Bowl win ( Super Bowl XLVIII). If there is anyone who knows how to work the below average offensive line of the Seahawks and make Russell Wilson uncomfortable, it would be him. Also, keep in mind, the defense has some of the main cogs that he coached, and he’s going to use that knowledge to his advantage as well. The Falcons defense was horrific when he got there and now they are average at best, but have some nice pieces in it like Keanu Neal and Vic Beasley Jr.

At the early going Vegas has this game at a four point spread with the Seahawks being the underdog. No doubt when this game inches closer to kick-off the spread will become shorter because the public will still see the Seahawks as they shouldn’t and still see the Falcons as the “soft” team they’ve been in playoffs before.