For all the gamblers nation-wide, this week brought great fun. The Atlantis Casino in Las Vegas released its over/under odds for each team’s win total, setting off anger in cities whose teams feel undervalued, and rejoice in towns where the team looks like a favorite. Obviously, so much can happen between now and Week 1, such as injuries, holdouts, but it’s still always fun to try to pick in mid-May who will dominate the league come the fall. With that being said, here are my initial picks for each and every team across the NFL.
Arizona Cardinals +/-6 Under. The NFC West has turned into one of the most difficult divisions in football, and the Cardinals are probably the worst team in it. Carson Palmer isn’t the answer at QB.
Atlanta Falcons +/- 10 Over. This team was oh-so-close to making it to the Super Bowl last year, and only got better. Probably not the NFC favorites, but pretty close.
Baltimore Ravens +/- 9.5 Slight over. This team lost a lot of key pieces in the off-season (Ed Reed, Anquan Boldin, Ray Lewis) but they are still the reigning Super Bowl champs. Can’t imagine Joe Flacco falling on his face and failing to win at least 10.
Buffalo Bills +/- 5 Over. I know EJ Manuel is probably going to get knocked around a little this year, but I trust Doug Marrone. Robert Woods and CJ Spiller offer some nice offensive pieces, and the defense is still solid.
Carolina Panthers +/- 6.5 Over. This is a very popular over, as the Panthers finished strong in 2012 and have a solid roster. Third-year magic for Cam Newton? Certainly possible if not probable. Luke Keuchly might be the most underrated defensive player in the league.
Chicago Bears +/- 8.5 Under. The retirement of Brian Urlacher hurts more off the field than it does on, as this team now lacks a true leader. Jay Cutler is on his back too often to assume that role left by Urlacher. And who is Marc Trestman again?
Cincinnati Bengals +/- 9 I think Vegas got this one exactly right. Very strong roster, but after two straight playoff appearances, something is bound to happen to hold back the Bengals just a little.
Cleveland Browns +/- 5 Over. Strong offensively, I think the Browns have a great chance to win 8 games this year. Addition of Paul Kruger from Baltimore is huge. Hard not to love Trent Richardson.
Dallas Cowboys +/- 8.5 Over. Tony Romo HAS to deliver after the contract that was given to him this offseason. Right now, this team is probably the favorite in the division. But who knows.
Denver Broncos +/- 12 Really hard to predict a team to win this many games, but I’ll say the Broncos get to 12. Wes Welker and Peyton Manning is a scary thought.
Detroit Lions +/- 7 Under. Losing Cliff Avril really hurts. I think this team is better than last year’s debacle, but still not anywhere close to the playoff team of 2011.
Green Bay Packers +/-12 Tough schedule; four of first 5 games against 2012 playoff teams. I’ll say under, but the Packers should still win at least 11 and have no problem winning that division.
Houston Texans +/-11 Under. Having Ed Reed last year would have helped immensely. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Andre Johnson at his finest, and I still don’t trust Matt Schaub. Maybe not even the division favorites anymore?
Indianapolis Colts +/-8 Oooooooover. Andrew Luck will only get better, and even though the rest of the roster still isn’t that talented, his move into the field of the best QB’s begins this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars +/- 4.5 Luke Joeckel is going to probably be the best player from this year’s draft, but that might be all that Jags fans can look forward too. Under, as long as Blaine Gabbert is still the QB.
Kansas City Chiefs +/- 6.5 Obviously, the Chiefs are a much improved team from last year’s 2-14 campaign. Do Eric Fisher, Alex Smith, and Andy Reid equate to 5 more wins. I think so. This team already had a decent amount of talent before (5 Pro Bowlers in 2012), and a competent coach gets them the over.
Miami Dolphins +/-7.5 Slight under. Mike Wallace is a huge addition for an offense that was in desperate need of a playmaker, but who is going to run the ball? I like Tannehill, but he’s a year away from making the jump.
New England Patriots +/-11.5 Over, mainly because the rest of the division is terrible. I don’t think Wes Welker’s departure is as much of a problem as people think; I think they’ll miss Brandon Lloyd more. But never bet against Brady and Belichick…at least in the regular season.
New York Giants +/-9 I think Vegas got this one right. The Giants are a team that typically struggles in the regular season, and the uncertainty in the receiving corps with Cruz and Nicks raises concerns. The defense needs to play much better than it did in the last 8 games of 2012. Eli Manning still can carry this team to the playoffs.
New York Jets +/-7 Under; maybe way under. I can’t envision Rex Ryan living past this year with the team, as he has certainly worn out his welcome. Geno Smith will show flashes, but as a whole will get pummeled. No help on offense. They traded their best defensive player. Any questions?
Oakland Raiders +/-5.5 Under, unless Matt Flynn plays for 16 games the way he did in the one that landed him his contract. If Darren McFadden can find a way to stay healthy for more than half a year, they can score. But few impact players on defense. Almost none. Charles Woodson is their hope?
Philadelphia Eagles +/-6.5 Slight over I think. Fast players with Chip Kelly’s offense is a good sign. No way they can be as bad as they were last year. One last chance for Michael Vick to prove he is worth his contract.
Pittsburgh Steelers +/-10 Under. The Steelers roster has slowly but surely been weakened over the last few years. The offensive line needs to play much better than it did last year for Big Ben, especially with an offense without Mike Wallace. They might get to 10, but 9 is more likely.
San Diego Chargers +/-7 Over. Remember when this team used to be a Super Bowl threat every year? They aren’t back to that point yet, but they had a great draft, and I think Philip Rivers is due for a big year. Mike McCoy will be a good coach.
Seattle Seahawks +/-11 Right on with this one. I loooove this team, as do most people. Very talented, but more importantly, extremely athletic. Russell Wilson is only going to get better. Give him Percy Harvin? Watch out.
St. Louis Rams +/-8 I actually think this number is right as well, but I’m tempted to go over. Tavon Austin is just the kind of player that Sam Bradford has been begging for. Jake Long is a huge addition, as the Rams now have both the top 2 picks of the ’08 draft. Rising team in the NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +/-6.5 Slight over because of their offseason additions. Darrell Revis and Vincent Jackson definitely add some talent to a roster that really needed it. Josh Freeman needs to stop his Jekyll and Hyde act, however. Doug Martin will be huge.
Tennessee Titans +/-6.5 Under. Jake Locker isn’t any good. Chris Johnson is roughly a third of what he used to be. Strong secondary, but not much else.
Washington Redskins +/-9 Clearly, their win total is pretty much tied to how productive (or how many games) RGIII can play. If he is out there for Week 1 and 100%, the over is probably a good bet. But if he is hesitant at the start of his season, whenever that might be, he won’t be as good a QB, and the team won’t be as good. I’ll say 9 is accurate, because Alfred Morris is a top 5 running back in the league.
