The Wednesday Walk Through
A nasty sinus infection, a short hospital visit, and three days without even a breath of air through my nose isn’t enough to hold down the Wednesday Walk Through. The truth is, It would have broke my heart to not have the chance to write the WWT this week. Week 3 of the NFL season was the most incredibly bizarre week of football I have ever been around.
Each Wednesday, readers of this column will sit in and enjoy exactly what you read the week before. The idea of the column is to present the information in sections that will run each week. It might sound a little confusing, but you will catch on. Let’s do this…
Without any further ado, let’t start the Wednesday Walk Through…
5 Things I wont Forget about Week 3
- #FailMary. They have called it the straw that will break the camel’s back, the tipping point, the moment when the NFL would come to their senses and bring the real officials back to the field. As I write the WWT, there isn’t a new deal yet, but it’s very close. Maybe by the end of the column the lockout will be over. Regardless, the #FailMary that ended the Seahawks and Packers game on Monday was ridiculous. I have watched the play a handful of times now and I have no idea how anyone in their right mind could have thought that Golden Tate scored a touchdown. I am not going to waste much more space on a play that has been dissected every which way for for almost three days now. I just hope and pray that what we all knew was a disgrace is enough to bring about the change that we have all been praying for.
- #FailMary wasn’t the only blunder that the replacement officials made over the weekend. Many of those mistakes have been highlighted on SportsCenter and the NFL Network and on social media. I have been a little disappointed that one specific blunder hasn’t gotten much play. During the Saints and Chiefs game on Sunday, Drew Brees threw off his back foot and connected with Pierre Thomas on a screen pass. Thomas went to the ground to catch the ball, got up, and ran into the end zone. The play (like all scoring plays) was reviewed and it was close. The play was ruled a catch and a touchdown on the field so any overturn would have to be based on indisputable visual evidence that Thomas trapped the ball. There was nothing on video that was indisputable either way. The play was close and the video was inconclusive, touchdown Saints. Wrong. The ref overturned the call saying that the video showed that Thomas trapped it. The Saints went on to miss a field goal and got nothing out of the drive. The Saints would have had a 31-6 lead midway through the third quarter instead of the 24-6 lead that was eventually erased by the Chiefs.
- I would have bet my house that CJ Spiller broke his collar bone on Sunday. The Bills got lucky and the Spiller injury is just a sprained AC joint. The news was not as good for the New York Jets. Darrelle Revis has been lost for the season due to an ACL tear. It goes to show how cruel and mysterious the football gods can be. The Spiller injury looked like a disaster and Revis didn’t even make contact with another player when he was injured. The Jets are 2-1 and are in first place in the AFC East, but can they continue to win games without Revis? With Spiller and Fred Jackson due back as soon as this weekend the Bills might be the team that benefits most from the Revis injury.
- Can anyone remember a Sunday afternoon with more overtime games? The Lions forced overtime with a Hall Mary that they actually caught. The Chiefs erased a 19 point deficit to force OT in New Orleans, and the Jets and Dolphins played one of the most boring games in NFL history for almost five full quarters. The Saints decided not to ice Ryan Succop before he forced overtime with a field goal and decided not to ice him before his field goal won the game for the Chiefs in overtime. The former Mr. Irrelevant made both kicks. The Dolphins decided to ice Nick Folk before he attempted to win the game in overtime. The Dolphins were awarded a timeout just as they had blocked the Folk field goal. Folk drilled his second opportunity right down the middle. It might be time to stop with the silly practice of icing kickers. If Sunday proved anything to the WWT, it’s this, it doesn’t matter if you ice the guy or not. He might make it or he might miss it. The time out isn’t going to make a difference either way.
- The Arizona Cardinals punked the Philadelphia Eagles 27-6 to improve to 3-0. The Cardinals looked pathetic in the pre-season and some people didn’t expect them to win 3 games all season. Let’s keep the Cardinals in mind next August when we are debating the meaningless nature of pre-season games. In the meantime, congratulations to the Cardinals for a great start, but the WWT is more interested in pointing out what a fraud the Eagles are. Andy Reid’s squad barely escaped Cleveland on opening day with a win and then got a gift from the Ravens to go 2-0. The Eagles have twelve turnovers already and when they got punched in the mouth by the Cardinals they crumbled to the ropes and took the standing eight count. I didn’t buy the Eagles last year when they spent the whole summer trying to convince us they were a Dream Team, and I didn’t buy their thin 2-0 start this season. One more thing about the Cardinals; it’s about the Cardinals but maybe more about the NFC West… when did the NFC West get so intimidating? The 49ers looked like the best team in the league before they stumbled against the Vikings and are 2-1. The Cardinals are 3-0 and are playing mean on defense. The Seahawks are 2-1 thanks to #Fail Mary, but they also looked fierce on defense sacking Aaron Rodgers over and over again on Monday. The NFC West isn’t the joke it was a few years ago and could easily get three teams in the NFC playoffs this year.
Raking the Rookie QB’s
They say that this is a quarterback league and five team’s are playing with a rookie behind center this year. Each week, the WWT will rank the progress of the five rookie starters to see who develops quickest this season and who might be a draft day miss.
- Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) (Last Week:2) Luck is a stud. He might even be a little underrated at this point. Most of the talk early in the season has centered around RG111, but I think Luck is having a better season so far. For the second time in three weeks Luck passed for over 300 yards, and for the second week in a row Luck lead his team down the field for a game winning field goal. The only problem with that last sentence is that the Colts didn’t actually win the game on Sunday. Luck drove his troops down the field to get Adam Vinatieri in position to kick a game winning field goal with only :37 seconds on the clock. Unfortunately for Luck, the Colts defense couldn’t hold and let Cecil Shorts run for 65 yards into the end zone after he caught a 15 yard slant from Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert only completed 9 other passes all day.
- Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins) (LW:1) I move Luck ahead of Griffin for now but I can already see the two swapping spots most of the season. Griffin didn’t do anything specific to get dropped on the list but he didn’t do enough to beat the Bengals at home. His defense gave up 38 points and that isn’t on him, but Griffin had the ball in his hands with 1:47 remaining and failed to tie the game. We are obviously splitting hairs but for now Griffin falls just behind Luck.
- Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) (LW:4) Wilson didn’t do much on Monday night, but he made a very underrated play to make it possible for #Fail Mary to happen. Wilson showed off some pretty foot work to scramble out of the pocked and unloaded a strike into the end zone to give Golden Tate a chance to get his pinkie on the ball. Also, Tate’s first touchdown was scored thanks to a gorgeous pass by Wilson. Wilson has the wins, but he hasn’t quite done enough to move ahead of Luck or Griffin. The wins do matter, but let’s be honest, we all know the Seahawks should be 1-2.
- Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) (LW:3) Tannehill was awful against the Jets in a game that was a showcase of how ugly an NFL game can be when the quarterbacks stink. Tannehill’s QB Rating was under 51 for the second time this season and he only managed to complete 44% of his passes on Sunday. The only thing keeping Tannehill from the bottom of this list is…
- Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns) (LW:5) Weeden seemed to take a step forward from week 1 to week 2 but whatever progress he made was thrown out the window after another awful performance on Sunday against the Bills. Weeden threw two more picks, didn’t show much accuracy, and heard some boos from the Dog Pound. Weeden seems destined to be more like Tim Couch than Bernie Kosar.
Week 3 Playoff Projections
Instead of power rankings, each week in the WWT we will look at what the playoff situation would look like in each conference if the season ended today. It will be interesting to see this list evolve from week-to-week.
NFC
East- Dallas Cowboys
North- Chicago Bears
South- Atlanta Falcons
West- Arizona Cardinals
Wild Card 1- Minnesota Vikings
Wild Cars 2- Seattle Seahawks
AFC
East- New York Jets
North- Baltimore Ravens
South- Houston Texans
West- San Diego Chargers
Wild Card 1- Buffalo Bills
Wild Card 2- Cincinnati Bengals
Must See TV- Week 4 Edition
Each week, the WWT will get you ready for the upcoming week of action in the NFL by ranking the five games every NFL fan must watch.
1. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, September 30 at 8:20 on NBC
For the second week in a row NBC has the #1 game that each NFL fan should watch. Well, in the WWT’s opinion they do. The Giants have had some time to get healthy and prepare for the Eagles after their impressive victory over the Panthers last Thursday. The Eagles and Giants are both 2-1 and this is the first chance for one NFC East team to get a leg up on another NFC East team. If you have read this column from top to bottom you know that I don’t think much of the Eagles. However, if the Eagles can beat the Giants at home in front of Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth it would be a good first step towards changing my mind.
Prediction: Giants 34 Eagles 24
2. Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys, Monday, October 1, at 8:30 on ESPN
ESPN has a ton of momentum after #Fail Mary and they have another great game on Monday Night Football this week. The Bears bounced back from an ugly week 2 outing against the Packers to whip the St. Louis Rams last week in Chicago. The Cowboys won an ugly game against the Buccaneers. Regardless of how, both teams are 2-1 and this game is an important inter-conference matchup. Jay Cutler will have the eyes of the Nation on him again and this time Demarcus Ware is on the other side of his shaky offensive line. You could argue that Tony Romo has more pressure on him than any other QB in the league. Look for ESPN to cut to a shot of Jerry Jones each time Romo makes a mistake.
Prediction: Cowboys 21 Bears 19
3. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Sunday, September 30, at 1:00 on Fox
The Vikings are off to a surprising 2-1 start and Christian Ponder is proving that he was worth the draft pick so far this season. The Lions are 1-2 and could have started 0-3 if Matt Stafford didn’t bail them out on opening day. To make matters worse for the Lions, Stafford has a bad wheel and might not be able to play on Sunday. If Stafford is out, the Vikings have a great opportunity to put some early distance between themselves and the Lions in the NFC North standings.
Prediction: Vikings 33 Lions 31
4. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, September 30, at 1:00 on CBS
Ralph Wilson Stadium is an awesome place to see a football game when the Bills are good. The Ralph will be rocking on Sunday when the 2-1 Bills welcome the reeling 1-2 Patriots. The Patriots have lost their last two games after starting the season with a victory and the Bills have won their last two since starting the season with a loss. Like the Vikings, the Bills can put some distance between themselves and their division’s defending champion. Are the Bills for real? Are the Patriots in trouble? Will CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson be ready? What should we expect from Wes Welker?
Prediction: Patriots 31 Bills 17
5. New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, September 30 at 4:25 on Fox
The 0-3 Saints. The 1-2 Packers. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. ONLY ON FOX. I’ll admit that wasn’t exactly the sales pitch the schedule maker sold Fox on when they made this game head of the National double header on Sunday. That doesn’t mean it isn’t an interesting game. The Saints desperately need a victory and the Packers should be angry after the debacle in Seattle on Monday. Can the Saints finally win a game? How will the Packers respond to the biggest robbery in sports since the 1972 Olympics? What is up with Drew Brees?
Prediction: Packers 55 Saints 30
Make Sure He is in your Lineup
Each week, the WWT will pick out a player that absolutely has to be in your fantasy lineup this week.
Aaron Rodgers, QB (Green Bay Packers) This might seem a little obvious, but I have actually heard that some fantasy owners are panicking and trading Rodgers after his slow start. Don’t do it. The Saints defense is dead last in just about everything and first in awful. Rodgers is pissed and the Saints don’t have any pass rush to speak of. Rodgers is set to scorch the Saints and if you drafted Rodgers in the first round you deserve to have him in your lineup this week. Projected Total: 33-40 407 yards 4 TD
Must Win Game of the Week
Each week, the WWT will tell you what team absolutely positively needs to win their upcoming game.
I could go with the Saints again, but that seems obvious. After going with Rodgers in the fantasy section, now doesn’t seem like the time to be obvious. Instead, I will go with the Lions. The Lions are already 1-2, their division is stacked thanks to an improved Vikings team, and their QB is injured. However, it could get a lot better for the Lions and fast. Consider this scenario… The desperate Saints march into Lambeau and beat a still stunned Packers team. The Cowboys handle the Bears on Monday Night Football, and the Lions beat the Vikings. If it plays out like that, the Vikings, Lions, and Bears are all 2-2 and the Packers are 1-3. Just like that the Lions are tied for first place, have a win over the Vikings, and a bye next week to get healthy. The Lions can’t control the Packers or the Bears, but they can control the Vikings this week.
One Last Thing…
First, thanks for reading the third edition of The Wednesday Walk Through. I hope you enjoyed it and will be back here next Wednesday for more of the same. I will end the column each week with one last thing. It might be a prediction. It might be a statement. It might be a question. The only sure thing is that before I end this column each week there will be… One. Last. Thing.
The Cleveland Browns drafted Trent Richardson in the first round of the draft in April. Most people agree that it was a great pick. Richardson could be the best running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. Then, the Browns traded back into the first round to draft Brandon Weeden. Weeden is less of a sure thing. We could go into why, but I have a different point to make. It has been said that the first round of the draft is about 50/50. Half of the time you hit on your first round pick and the other half of the time your pick is a bust. If you can do better than 50% over a ten year period you might win a Super Bowl and if you do worse than 50% you will probably miss the playoffs a lot.
Here is a list of the Browns fist round picks since they re-entered the league in 1999.
99- Tim Couch, 00- Courtney Brown, 01- Gerard Warren, 02- William Green, 03- Jeff Faine, 04- Kellen Winslow JR, 05- Braylon Edwards, 06- Kamerion Wimbley, 07- Joe Thomas, Brady Quinn, 08- No Pick, 09- Alex Mack, 10- Joe Haden, 11- Phil Taylor
That is 13 players. The book is still out on Taylor so we won’t count him. That leaves us with 12 players. Couch, Brown, Warren, Green, Edwards, Wimbley, and Quinn can all be called busts (none of them are on the current Browns roster or won a playoff game while on a previous Browns roster). Thomas and Haden are studs. Mack is the team’s starting center. Faine is a decent NFL player, but didn’t stick around long enough to help the Browns, so he has to go in the bust pile.
8 busts, 2 stars, 1 starter. That is considerably less than 50%. So much less that I am not even going to do the math. There is no need to embarrass anyone.
This should go pretty far to explaining why the new Browns have only made the playoffs 1 time. The good news is that the Browns seem to be doing better. The Browns have six of their own first round picks on their roster this year (Thomas, Mack, Haden, Taylor, Richardson, Weeden). There is some bad news. There is always bad news with the Browns. Haden is suspended and Taylor is on PUP.
The point of all this is that the Browns needed to do better than 50 percent in last April’s draft. They need Weeden and Richardson to stay out of the bust pile. The problem is that if we look at their track record even 50% might be asking a lot. Weeden and Richardson have to be more Thomas and Haden than Couch and Warren.
