We continue to get to the stretch run of this year’s NFL season, as the final quarter of the year is upon us. What’s good for us, is that three of the four AFC West teams are still right in the middle of the logjam that is the AFC playoff picture.
So who is going to step up this week when their team needs it the most? Will it be Peyton Manning and company getting a win over the playoff hungry Buffalo Bills? Will Phillip Rivers have more magic left after leading his team to a thrilling comeback win just the week before? What about the Chiefs? Will they be able to get out of their current two game skid and finish the year strong?
And what the heck happened last week to the Raiders? All that and more in this week’s Around the AFC West.
Standings (with last week’s results)
Denver Broncos…….9-3 (W, 29-16 v. KC)
San Diego Chargers..8-4 (W, 34-33 v. BAL)
Kansas City Chiefs..,7-5 (L, 16-29 v. DEN)
Oakland Raiders……1-11 (L, 0-52 v. KC)
Denver Broncos
Return of TE Julius Thomas?
While the total yardage doesn’t say the Broncos have missed their star tight end at all, they certainly have missed Julius Thomas once the team has reached the red zone in recent weeks.
Thomas, who has missed the two weeks due to an ankle injury, is getting closer to a return and he could be back this week for the Broncos tilt with the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos offense would welcome him back with open arms.
Denver has scored just six touchdowns on 15 red-zone trips (40%) since Thomas left in the 1st quarter three weeks ago against the St. Louis Rams.
That pales in comparison to their 24 for 31 rate (77.4%) they had as a team before Thomas went down.
While it isn’t fair to put all of the blame on Thomas’s absence, it definitely is a factor as he is a red-zone miss-match who excels at getting open in tight space.
His 12 touchdown receptions still lead the league even though he hasn’t scored since November 9th.
The Bills have been bad against the tight end in recent years and if Thomas can return to the line up, he should be in store for a productive afternoon.
C.J. Anderson taking the league by storm
It was only just a short few weeks ago that we were wondering who was going to take control of the starting position next to Peyton Manning in the Bronco’s backfield. There certainly aren’t any questions about it now.
Second year pro C.J. Anderson has just run off with the position, as he is putting together one of the best stretch’s of play for a running back this season.
He leads the league in yards from scrimmage and rushing yards over the last four weeks, putting up 454 rushing yards to go along with 18 receptions for 204 yards and two total touchdowns.
On the year, he is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which puts him second in the league among running backs (behind Justin Forsett’s 5.6).
He gets a big test this week in facing the Bills, who have allowed just 96.3 yards rushing yards per game (7th best).
Look for the Broncos to get Anderson involved in a lot of screen and draw plays, just to keep Buffalo’s defensive line off balance.
It is the only real shot they have in trying to disrupt the pressure that those guys are going to be bringing on Manning. Screens and draws will make them back off and not over pursue on just rushing the quarterback.
Buffalo’s front seven is very stout, and has looked very strong against the run in recent weeks. The Broncos don’t want Manning dropping back 50 times in this one, so I expect a heavy workload for Anderson, in which he could still turn his large amount of chances into a big day.
On Tap this Week: vs. Buffalo Bills (7-5), 4:05 PM Eastern CBS
The Bills only chance in pulling the upset this week is if they get another strong performance from what is becoming one of the best defenses in the entire league.
Manning has been slowed in recent weeks, and with the best defensive line in football, the Bills should at least get some pressure on Manning at times during the game. Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams, and Jerry Hughes are all in the top 10 in sacks in the league and help make up a Bills team that leads the NFL with 48 sacks.
I just don’t think there is enough depth in Buffalo’s secondary to think about stopping all of the talented options that the Broncos have at their disposal at the receiver, tight end and now running back position.
Denver’s defense should also be able to get a few big plays on Bills quarterback Kyle Orton, who has struggled mightily with accuracy issues in recent weeks. His limited mobility behind a poor offensive line will also create some sack opportunities for the Bronco’s front seven.
Don’t be surprised if Manning starts slowly , but I expect him to pick it up and get the Broncos a win this weekend.
San Diego Chargers
Big Win Gives Chargers Confidence for Brutal Stretch
The San Diego Chargers season was on life support last weekend, but Phillip Rivers led a 81-yard touchdown drive in just 96 seconds at the end of the game to keep the Chargers playoff hopes alive in their 34-33 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
So how big was the touchdown drive exactly? Let’s let Mike Beuoy and Reuben Fischer-Baum of FiveThirtyEight.com explain;
“Without Rivers’s clutch drive, the Chargers would have been 7-5 with just an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Instead, San Diego has a 36 percent probability and — with its 8-4 record — a claim on the top AFC wild card seed.”
The thing that hurts the Chargers the most in their downright brutal schedule that they have to finish up the year.
They have to play the Patriots, Broncos, 49ers, and Chiefs, who have a combined record of 32-16.
The odds turn heavily in their favor if one of those upsets happen this week though.
“San Diego figures to be an underdog for the rest of the regular season, so it’ll need to pull off at least a couple of upsets to secure a playoff berth. If it manages such an upset Sunday when it hosts New England, its playoff chances will climb to 56 percent. A loss drops the Chargers to 24 percent.”
A win this week, and the roller coaster ride will continue for the Chargers, who could firmly put themselves in the AFC playoff picture.
It would be their fourth win in a row, and show that the strong team we saw earlier in the season is the team that it going to finish the year out.
Allen gets back on track, will it last?
At times this season Rivers and team-leading receiver Keenan Allen have looked to be on completely different pages.
They have put whatever previous problems they had behind them, as Allen has turned back into a big-time threat in recent weeks.
In the last two weeks, Allen has totaled over 100 yards in each game while also scoring three of his four touchdowns that he has on the season.
He is learning how to deal with the pressures of being a number one receiver in this league after his breakout year last season. Team’s are focusing more and more pressure on the young wide out, and he seems to be getting better and better at countering the looks they have been throwing at him.
His recent success could hit a wall this week though, as he will go up against the Patriots Darrelle Revis.
We all know by this point about the day Allen had against Seahawks corner Richard Sherman earlier in the year (along with some other top-notch corners he has had to face this year) but this is a completely different match up. I mean, the guy has his own island named after him for a reason.
I see Revis following him around on the field all game and while Rivers will not shy away from his side, I just don’t think Allen is going to find a lot of open holes in what should be some very tight press coverage.
Allen is still having a strong year, and leads the team in targets (104), receptions (72) and receiving yards.
It just might take a short hiccup this week, as going up against a NFL great might prove to be too much.
On Tap this Week: vs. New England Patriots (9-3), 8:30 PM NBC
Football fans get quite the Sunday night treat this weekend, as the day caps with a showdown between two NFL greats in Rivers and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
Both quarterbacks have been close to unstoppable this year, although Rivers does hold a 1-5 record against New England is his career, and has a tough matchup in this one.
I think the Patriots defense is slightly better than their stats would indicate, and that the Chargers won’t be able to keep up with the Patriots high scoring attack.
The Chargers have a strong defense on paper, but will struggle to slow down a fully healthy Rob Gronkowski (65 receptions, 910 yards and 9 touchdowns) along with the rest of New England’s targets.
Both quarterbacks are going to get their chances, but in the end I see Tom Brady and company doing just a little bit more
In the last seven seasons, New England has lost just three games in December and I don’t see another one happening at least this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite two straight division loses, Chiefs still control own density
The Chiefs dropped back-to-back nationally televised games to division rivals in the past two weeks, but they still control their own density in the AFC playoff picture.
With seven teams fighting for just two wildcard berths (and six of those teams at 7-5), the only thing that is going to matter is how these teams end their year.
The Chiefs get to take on two of these teams (the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers) and if they win out, will make the playoffs no matter what happens based on them holding the tie-breakers over the other squads in the race.
If the season ended today though, the Chiefs would be out because the Chargers would take one spot, while the 7-5 Dolphins would take the other. The Dolphins did lose to the Chiefs earlier in the season, but with Baltimore also being in the mix. Miami would get the final spot because it has a better record in games against AFC opponents than either the Chiefs or Ravens.
Kansas City is looking for back-to-back winning seasons for just the second time in 17 years, and will need a strong finish if they want to make it to the post season.
Can we please get a touchdown from a receiver?
One of the biggest struggles this season for the Chiefs has been the struggles of their wide receiving corps, who has still yet to score a receiving touchdown through 13 games this season.
15 touchdown passes for Alex Smith and yet all of them have gone to either a running back or tight end.
Dwayne Bowe is the leading receiver for the team with just 46 receptions for 569 yards and there is not another legitimate threat at the position on the roster right now.
It leaves coach Andy Reid in quite the predicament.
Reid, who uses the west coast system and loves to spread the field with short passes, doesn’t have a lot of weapons to even get the ball out to.
Will this be the week a receiver finally reaches the end zone.
I wouldn’t put money on it, not against a very talented Cardinal secondary.
On Tap this Week: at Arizona Cardinals (9-3), 4:05 PM CBS
The good thing for Kansas City is that their opponent this week has also dropped two straight games.
That is about the only good news, as they will face a very tough defensive team in the Arizona Cardinals.
I expect this game to be a very low scoring affair, as each team’s defense is one of the best in football.
Neither offense jumps off the page either.
Alex Smith and Drew Stanton are both going to manage a game much more than they are going to go out there and sling it around to win it.
The Chiefs will look to Jamaal Charles to carry the load for an offense that has struggled to put a lot of yardage and high point totals on the scoreboard throughout this season.
This game is a toss up to me, but I’ll go with the Cardinals defending their home turf in a defensive stalemate, as they try to get a hold of their NFC West division.
Oakland Raiders
Derek Carr confirmed starter for this week’s game
The question of Carr starting this weekend’s game was never really in too much doubt, but it is a situation that arose after another bad performance last week (24 of 39 for just 173 yards and two interceptions) that saw Carr see the bench for backup Matt Schaub in a 52-0 beat down by the St. Louis Rams.
Growing pains are expected, and Carr has otherwise been very impressive for a 1-11 team in Oakland, even if his play has dropped off slightly recently.
His touchdown to interception ratio (14-11) and sack total (15 against), two issues that seem to go hand-in-hand in learning the quarterback position, haven’t been the problem this season.
Stretching the ball down the field along with picking up first downs to sustain drives have been the main culprits.
The Raiders are last in the league in points scored (14.7 per game) and 27th in passing yards per game (207.4). Without much of a run game, you need to be able to keep drives going in order to get a chance to put some points on the board.
Carr has 27 completions this year short of the third down marker, which leads all NFL quarterbacks.
Out of his 264 completions, only 27.4% have gone for first downs, which ranks him 36 out of the 37 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes this season.
The good thing about this is that Carr does a great job of getting the ball out of his hand quickly. When that happens though, you don’t get a lot of time for the play to develop down the field, which causes you to settle for a lot of dump off and over the middle throws that are short of the marker.
The 49ers have one of the best secondaries in the league, allowing just 208.4 yards per game through the air, 4th best in the NFL.
With the return of defensive lineman Aldon Smith (2 sacks and constant pressure in 3 games) just a few weeks ago from suspension, the 49ers also feature a defensive line that can get after the quarterback.
It has all the making in a long afternoon for the Raiders offense and their rookie quarterback.
Raiders/Harbaugh Connection Heating Up
The Oakland Raiders could possibly be going up against their head coach of next season, as Jim Harbaugh will be roaming the sidelines against them this season.
Well, at least if you believe the early reports anyways.
The Raider/Harbaugh connection has been heating up recently, with earlier reports this week stating that the 49er coach was getting interest from both the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders.
With a year still left on the deal, Harbaugh’s fate with San Francisco will be decided after the season and if him and the team’s management still aren’t seeing eye-to-eye the 49ers will look to move the coach in a trade.
Oakland makes a whole lot of sense for Harbaugh as they have a young quarterback, another high draft pick coming (possibly first overall) and a ton of cap flexibility to really turn over their roster where he sees fit.
It would also give him get two chances a year to stick it to what would be his former team.
It will all come down to what team gives the coach the most power.
It is believe he would like to go to the place where he would have most control over the roster and player personnel decisions.
And who knows, maybe winning does cure everything.
If the 49ers go on a late season run to reach the playoffs, maybe Harbaugh might just stay put after all.
Or maybe it will make him want just that much more.
On Tap this Week: vs. San Francisco 49ers (7-5), 4:25 PM FOX
This is a match up in this cross-town rivalry that really doesn’t favor Oakland much at all.
I don’t see the offense putting up much of anything against a very good San Francisco defense, and despite not getting sacked a lot this year, six sacks just came last week in that lost to St. Louis.
San Francisco’s defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in overall defense.
While the 49er’s have had problems of their own on the offensive side of the ball, they should be able to get back on the right track if they go with a run-heavy attack.
Look for Frank Gore to have a big impact in this one, with the Raiders allowing the 27th most rushing yards per game against (130.5).
The defense will be too much, and the offense will be just enough to give the 49ers a win over the Raiders.
