Week 10 AFC East Weekly Buzz: Bills-Chiefs, Dolphins- Lions, Steelers-Jets, Pats on Bye

Buffalo Bills

After the bye week, the Bills now go into the second half of their season attempting to make their first postseason in 15 years, and their first test is this weekend in Buffalo against Kansas City.

It will be a matchup of arguably the two best defensive fronts in the NFL, with the Bills leading the NFL in sacks per game (3.5), and the Chiefs right behind (3.375). An offensive line for Buffalo that has allowed 17 sacks in Kyle Orton’s first four starts (23 on the season, the fourth-highest per game rate in the league) will have a huge challenge trying to contain the duo of Justin Houston (12 sacks) and Tamba Hali (4 sacks), as both have been Pro Bowlers the last two years, and Houston is the hottest pass-rusher in football, with 9 sacks in 5 games, 5 in the last two games.

Houston and Hali will be a tough task for the tackle combination of Cordy Glenn and rookie Seantrel Henderson, while Pro Bowl nose tackle Dontari Poe (3 sacks) and defensive end Allen Bailey (4 sacks) have the ability to make it very tough on the interior three of the offensive line (Erik Pears, Eric Wood, and Kraig Urbik). With the status of Fred Jackson (groin) still up in the air for Sunday, it will be tough to ask any of the other running backs to consistently pick up blitzes and pressures. If Orton can be protected, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 13 touchdown passes and have only intercepted four passes. The Chiefs have the league’s best total pass defense, allowing only 199 yards per game.

On the other side of the football, the combination of Marcell Dareus (7 sacks), Mario Williams (6 sacks), and Jerry Hughes (5.5 sacks) will go against a middle of the pack front five (Chiefs 16th in sacks allowed with 19). They will have to chase the mobile (162 yards on 6.0 yards per carry) and efficient (11 touchdowns to 4 interceptions) Alex Smith. Kansas City’s offense only has 7 turnovers on the season, three of them were in the season-opening loss to the Tennessee Titans. They have only forced 5 turnovers on the defensive side, with three in the Week 4 blowout win over the New England Patriots.

Buffalo’s defense, which has forced 18 turnovers (tied for second in NFL with New England and Miami), will have to do its best to take the ball away and maintain its turnover differential (+7, 5th in NFL). This will be tough against a more complete team with the league’s sixth-best rushing attack (136.9 ypg). The Bills have to try and avoid the crippling turnovers on offense (11 on the season, 15th in the league) so it doesn’t put a lot of pressure on the defense. With six non-division leaders in the AFC with 5 wins on the season, this is as close as to a must-win during the ninth game of the season it can be. With tiebreakers coming into play, the real playoff contenders are starting to emerge.

Miami Dolphins

The focus for the resurgence of the Dolphins (4-1 in their last 5)  has been the tremendous improvement of Ryan Tannehill and the Miami offense. The defense has been the biggest catalyst, allowing only 68 points in that stretch, including the first shutout of the San Diego Chargers since 1999.

The Orlando Sun-Sentinel’s Omar Kelly writes how defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle has made his unit extremely scheme-versatile, and how that has helped in recent weeks:

Turns out, Coyle had valid reasons to not marry to a scheme considering the Dolphins possess one of the most multi-schemed, flexible defenses in the NFL. Each week this season the Dolphins’ defense has resembled a Swiss Army knife, pulling out a different scheme for a specific opponent.

There’s the 5-2 defense, which features three defensive linemen on the field together, and is often used to suffocate the run.

There’s the 3-4 defense, which features Olivier Vernon or Cameron Wake — or maybe both — dropping back into coverage. That scheme disguises where the pressure is coming from.

Then there’s the speed package, which features one defensive tackle on the field, and six pass rushers standing up, roaming the field, confusing the offensive line.

And finally, there’s the reliable 4-3 base defense, which features four defensive linemen and three linebackers.

“As we game plan, all of those packages are up for consideration as we look at the next opponent, how we match up, is there an issue?” Coyle said, referring to a difficult matchup, like the one Lions receiver Calvin Johnson will present this Sunday. “We try to have options that may give the offense more things to work on too. Just like they give us problems with multiple groupings and formations and things. When we’re in those packages, they’ve got to spend time during the week [preparing for it].”

Last week, Coyle unleashed a dime package, which features four safeties on the field at the same time. The scheme, which also features six defensive backs, helped contain Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, and created tight windows for quarterback Philip Rivers, who threw three interceptions.

The Dolphins are third in the NFL in sacks per game (3.1), and are facing an offensive line in Detroit that have allowed the fourth-most sacks per game (3), and with the secondary foursome of cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan and safeties Reshad Jones and Louis Delmas, have the ability to contain the now-healthy Calvin Johnson and emerging Golden Tate (100 yards per game, fourth in NFL). With this weekend’s game against the Lions, followed by a home game on the following Thursday night against the division rival Bills, if Miami can stay hot, they will announce themselves as playoff contenders.

The Dolphins are third in the NFL in sacks per game (3.1), and are facing an offensive line in Detroit that have allowed the fourth-most sacks per game (3), and with the secondary foursome of cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan and safeties Reshad Jones and Louis Delmas, have the ability to contain the now-healthy Calvin Johnson and emerging Golden Tate (100 yards per game, fourth in NFL). With this weekend’s game against the Lions, followed by a home game on the following Thursday night against the division rival Bills, if Miami can stay hot, they will announce themselves as playoff contenders.

New York Jets

After Ben Roethlisberger has thrown six touchdowns in each of his past two games, a continually fluid secondary situation for the Jets will have to face off against the hottest offense in football that has scored 94 points in the last two weeks.

With Josh Thomas and undrafted rookie Marcus Williams manning the outside corners in the second half Sunday, holding the Chiefs to only 3 points in the final two quarters, New York will have some reason to be confident in them. However, facing off against arguably the best receiver in football (Antonio Brown), exciting rookie Martavis Bryant, who has 5 touchdowns in the last three games, along with Markus Wheaton and Lance Moore  is much more difficult than playing versus Dwayne Bowe and a Kansas City team without an established No. 2 receiver.

A player that will need to play big in this matchup for the Jets to have a chance to win is rookie safety Calvin Pryor, who has 34 tackles, two passes defensed, and half a sack on the season. The no. 17 pick in the 2014 draft has to be able to make sure the cornerbacks get help when needed over the top. He will also have to help defend tight end Heath Miller when he goes down the middle of the field.

With an eight-game losing streak entering this game and a bye week afterward, New York needs to identify what they have at the quarterback position. Also figuring out if Percy Harvin can be the team’s top playmaker on offense, along with what areas of the team must be improved in the offseason leaves the Jets with a lot of questions before their bye next week.

New England Patriots

With a five-game winning streak at a margin of victory of 18.6 points per game, the Patriots look like not only the hottest team in football entering their bye, but perhaps the best.

Tom Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns to only one interception in that stretch, and Rob Gronkowski has 36 catches for 516 yards and 5 touchdowns in that span. The two are re-developing the chemistry they had in the 2011 run to the Super Bowl. Along with that, moving from an offense that tried to use young receivers like Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins early in the season to one that features primarily Gronkowski, fellow tight end Tim Wright, Julian Edelman (named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week, ), and Brandon LaFell (25 catches, 329 yards, and 4 touchdowns in the past four games).

On the defensive side, despite a pass-rush that only has the 13th most sacks in the league and no players above Chandler Jones’ 4.5 quarterback takedowns, the Patriots have forced 18 turnovers, tied with Buffalo and Miami for second-most in the NFL. Jerod Mayo’s season-ending injury against the Bills in Week 6 appeared to take away New England’s best communicator. The trade for Akeem Ayers has lit a fire under the fourth-year linebacker, who has nine tackles and two sacks in his first two games with his new team.

Against the Broncos on Sunday, Bill Belichick showed the confidence he has in the depth and talent of his secondary, allowing only two targets to Julius Thomas  with Brandon Browner shadowing him, and letting little-known players like Malcolm Butler and Patrick Chung cover receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker, respectively, and do so effectively. That will be key when New England returns to the field, as they play a murderor’s row of six winning teams in seven games that combine for a record of 32-18, with quarterbacks like Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, and Kyle Orton.

To confirm that they are the league’s dominant squad, the Patriots will have to be able to win at least 4 or 5 of those games, which would probably be enough to get home-field advantage in the postseason, where they are 97-18 at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002.