Finding a Quarterback good enough to a Super Bowl with is the goal of any NFL Franchise. Every QB brings different flavors, attributes, and talents to the table. When Scouting a QB I look for: Solid Mechanics, Quick Release, Accuracy, Arm Strength, Anticipation, Field Vision, Toughness, Pocket Presence, and ability to perform under duress. I say this yearly, and I will continue to. NFL Defenses, and their players are built to get after the QB, pressure him, hit him, and force him into mistakes. If a Quarterback can’t play under pressure, and play well, make the opposition pay for blitzing him, then he isn’t the man for my franchise. BOTTOM LINE! Here are the list of the QB’s I watched on film, 15 received a draft worthy grade.
1. Teddy Bridgewater Louisville 6’2 214lbs Jr. Grade: First Round
Career Stats: 39 starts 781-1142 68.4% 9,817 yards 72 TD 24 INT
Bridgewater is the clear number one QB prospect in the 2014 Draft. He has 39 career starts under his belt, which is more then enough in my opinion. He caught my eye during his sophomore year, and has done nothing but get better since. He has more then enough arm to make all of the throws at the NFL level, to go along with Elite accuracy and anticipation.
His field vision is damn good, he understands defensive scheme, you can tell he’s a film addict by his pre-snap reads and adjustments. Sees the blitz and is tough enough to stare it down and deliver strikes. Listed at 196lbs during his college career, I had serious concerns about his durability at the next level, but he weighed in at 214lbs at the NFL Combine, showing that he has the ability to add good weight to his frame.
This notion by the national media that Bridegwater isn’t the top QB in this draft because he didn’t throw at the combine is complete blasphemy, malarkey, and senseless palaver. Watch his tape, it doesn’t lie.
2. Blake Bortles Central Florida 6’5 232lbs rJr. Grade: First Round
Career Stats: 27 starts 585-891 65.7% 7,598 yards 56 TD 19 INT
Bortles has the physical tools to be a starting QB,great size, footwork, and enough speed to extend plays with his legs. While he doesn’t have the arm of a guy like Joe Flacco, he has more then enough to make all the throws. Only a two year starter, Bortles is raw, but has played well, and has so much room for progression.
His mechanics are inconsistent, which leads to balls sailing on him and underthrows on the deep ball, but with the proper coaching, those small flaws can be fixed. Questionable decision making at times,but not consistently. On tape he threw the ball late across the middle and outside.He throws the ball well running to both the left and right, and for a guy his size, he is much faster then you would expect. He has a frame to add another good 5-10lbs.
When watching him versus higher level competition, he was never flustered, the moment was never to big for him. His talent and ability stood out among some of the better athletes in the country. His 2013 tape vs South Carolina, Penn St and Louisville, along with the 2012 game vs Ohio St is proof that this guy is more then worthy of a first round grade.
3. Johnny Manziel Texas A&M 6’0 207lbs rSo. Grade: Second Round
Career Stats: 26 Starts 595-863 7,820 yards 69% 63 TD 22 INT 345 carries 2169 yards 6.3 ypc 30 TD
Manziel is arguably the most exciting college football player I’ve seen in the last 25 years of watching the sport closely. The question is how does his style of play translate to the NFL. Watching his 2012 tape and comparing it to his 2013 tape, he has improved as a pocket passer, but is still very flawed.
Manziel shows much more willingness to stay in the pocket, but for whatever reason, he has nervous, happy feet, which leads to inaccuracy, and loss of velocity on throws down the field. But when he is mechanically sound, he throws a very accurate pass on the deep outs and digs across the middle. He surprisingly throws the ball well when rolling to his left, which is rare for a right-handed QB.
Manziel’s ability to get out of the pocket and make plays with his feet is a plus, but he also bails out too often before seeing the whole field and going through his progressions. He converted plenty of big plays to WR Mike Evans, but Evans also bailed his risky decision making out by making plays on the football. Manziel often missed wide open targets because he locked onto Evans to often.
Johnny Manziel has enough arm to play at the next level, the athleticism. But the question is do NFL teams think he can develop as a pocket passer? Will he work at his craft, can you trust him to lead your franchise? Can his small frame take an NFL beating? Me personally, I wouldn’t touch him in the first round, but that’s just me.
4. Derek Carr Fresno St. 6’2 214lbs rSr Grade: Late 2nd round
Career Stats: 39 starts 1087-1630 66.7% 12,843 yards 113 TD 24 INT
Derek Carr is a three year starter, with plenty of experience passing the football. Is much more athletic then most think, showed the ability to make first downs with his feet when need be. Threw a ton of quick screens during his career, which padded his stats, but thankfully I actually watched his film.
Carr’s strength as a passer is the short to intermediate game. He throws the fade and back shoulder pass really well. He has a short, quick compact delivery when throwing the football. Very accurate when throwing the slants, the quick outs, and passes up the seams. Has good anticipation on his passes, throws his receivers open. Needs work on his deep ball accuracy.
My Biggest issue with Carr is his performance under pressure. In a dirty pocket, with defenders in his face, or around his legs, Carr doesn’t perform well. Lack of pose, causes loss of mechanics, which leads to inaccurate passes. In the USC game, he missed at least 4-5 open passes that would have went for big gains or touchdowns when he felt pressure in the pocket. A quarterback who can’t perform under duress can’t play for me.
5. Brett Smith Wyoming 6’3 205lbs Jr. Grade: Third Round
Career Stats: 35 Starts 751-1213 62% 8,834 yards 76 TD 28 INT 377 carries 1,519 yards 20 TD
Brett Smith is a three year starter, who for whatever reason wasn’t invited to the 2014 NFL Combine. Went to a small school, wasn’t seen on TV very often, but this kid has NFL athleticism and the potential to be a productive starter not right away, but maybe in a year or two. Accounted for 96 TD’s in three years as a starter.
Smith is an athletic QB, with the ability to get out of the pocket when things break down and throw accurate passes on the run to either the left or right. When his feet is set, he is pinpoint accurate on the intermediate passes in the middle of the field. Tough, willing to stay in the pocket, take the hits and complete passes.
Needs to work on his pre-snap reads, at times will force the ball into coverage. Not an elite arm, accuracy on the deep passes suffers because he often leaves the ground when throwing ball, causing underthrows. Added weight during his college career, but still needs to get stronger in order to be able to handle an beating over a 16 game NFL schedule.
6. Jimmy Garoppolo Eastern Illinois 6’2 226lbs Sr. Grade: Third Round
Career Stats: 45 Starts 1047-1688 63% 13,156 yards 112 TD 51 INT
Garoppolo dominated the FCS level in 2013, was invited to perform during the East-West Shrine game, did great, winning the MVP and then took full advantage of Bama’s A.J. McCarron turning down a Senior Bowl invite and was the best QB there.
Garroppolo has a quick compact release, to go along with good footwork. He is pinpoint accurate and anticipates his passes well on the short to medium stuff. Has good mobility and throws the ball well on the run. Not pressured much due to low level of competition, at this point, I have no idea how he plays in a dirty pocket and under pressure by a defense. Lack of elite arm strength is evident when he throws the ball down the field, plenty of underthrown passes.
Garoppolo is talented, he needs to be in a system fit for his skill set, preferably a West Coast system. But he also has no experience under center, he will have to work on his footwork big time.
7. Zach Mettenberger LSU 6’5 224lbs rSr Grade: 4th Round
Career Stats: 25 Starts 407-659 62% 5,783 yards 35 TD 15 INT
Zach Mettenberger was one of the more improved QB prospects I had seen on film this year. His 2012 season was disappointing, especially considering the talent he had at the wide receiver position. New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and his pro style, down the field passing offense was really built to his strengths. Before tearing his ACL in the season finale, I really thought he played good enough to warrant a 2nd round pick.
Mettenberger has arguably the strongest arm of all of the QB’s in the 2014 NFL Draft. He simply has the arm to make throws that other QB’s couldn’t think of completing. The deep outs, comebacks, and digs really show off his elite, top flight arm. His mechanics improved, which led to him being a much more accurate passer. Because of his arm strength, he simply is able to fit passes into tight windows, which is a gift and a curse. He sometimes trusts his arm to much, which leads to tipped passes and interceptions.
He is a traditional drop back quarterback with limited mobility in and out of the pocket. He processes info slow at times, missing open targets, not throwing the ball before his guys break open, but waiting until they are wide open vs man and zone coverage. For a guy his size I would like to see him perform under duress much better. He has the arm to make the throws, and the height to see the field.
8. A.J. McCarron Alabama 6’3 220lbs rSr. Grade: 4th Round
Career Stats: 40 Starts 686-1026 67% 9,019 yards 77 TD 15 INT
A.J. McCarron is a two time National Championship winning QB, with plenty of game experience with his 40 starts in the SEC. While he might not have the physical tools of some of the other QB in this draft, he played in a pro style offense which gives him an advantage a prospect somewhat.
McCarron isn’t a quarterback with elite arm strength or athleticism, he is a guy who got the job done with his brain. He makes up for a average arm with good timing, anticipation , and accuracy. He did a good job making adjustments at the line of scrimmage, adjusting protections, and hitting the hot receiver. Bama did a good job designing the offense around his strengths and not exposing his weaknesses.
Where he falls short is in the arm strength department, he doesn’t have enough velocity on the deep outs, deep digs, or comeback routes to make those throws at the next level. Struggles when forced to move, not a real mobile guy in or out of the pocket. Played with supreme talent during his career, not a guy who elevated the players around him.
McCarron isn’t a top level talent, but with his experience in a pro style offense, playing under the center more then any other QB prospect in this draft not name Teddy Bridgewater, preparation and smarts, he has a chance to possibly be a starter and he will definitely have a long career as a backup.
9. Aaron Murray Georgia 6’1 207lbs rSr. Grade: 4th-5th Round
Career Stats: 52 starts 921-1478 62% 13,166 yards 121 TD 41 INT
Aaron Murray has 52 starts under his belt as a quarterback in the SEC, the best conference in college football. He has played in a pro style system, with experience under center, while also playing in the shotgun spread as well. Another prospect without a top flight arm, Murray’s accuracy and understanding of defenses are key to his success. He played with elite level talent during his career and it was his job to distribute the ball to those weapons.
Murray’s cup of tea is the short, quick passing game, that is where he could do his best at the next level. His arm isn’t strong enough for him to stretch the field vertically at the next level. His lack of arm, along with height hurts his ability to play well under pressure, when the pocket is a mess. Tearing his ACL in November hurt his draft stock, I can see him coming off of the board between the 4th and 5th rounds.
10. David Fales San Jose St. 6’2 212lbs Sr. Grade: 4th-5th Round
Career Stats: 25 starts 639-938 68.1 % 8,382 yards 66 TD 22 INT
Fales left the JUCO ranks to play his last two years of college football at San Jose St, where he threw for over 4,000 yards in 2012-13. He jumped out to me when he completed over 72% of his passes as a junior. When watching Fales on film, I see a QB with average arm strength, but good accuracy, and the ability to anticipate passes and throw his targets open. Doesn’t possess enough arm for the deep outs and comeback routes, and also struggles throwing the deep ball with accuracy. He has enough brains and ability to play in the NFL a long time as a backup and spot starter.
11. Logan Thomas Virginia Tech 6’6 248lbs Sr. Grade: Late 4th-Early 5th Round
Career Stats: 40 starts 694-1249 55.6% 9,005 yards 53 TD 39 INT 495 carries 1,359 yards 25 TD
I’ve can’t remember ever seeing a QB prospect fall from grace the way Logan Thomas has. After an epic 2011, his first as a starter, myself, along with plenty of NFL Draft scouts seen a future 1st round pick in Thomas. But since then he’s regressed in a major way. The Physical tools are there, if you wanted to describe the look of a perfect NFL QB, Logan Thomas would be what the picture looked like.
While having a strong arm and being a great athlete, their are some major flaws in Thomas’s game. His footwork needs serious work for one, on tape and even watching him throw at the combine, he rarely steps into his passes. Transferring your weight from the back to the front foot when throwing adds velocity and accuracy to a QB’s passes. Clean or dirty pocket, Thomas too often just uses his arm to throw the ball instead of using his legs to drive it, causing under and overthrown passes.
He also has 39 INT’s in 40 career games, to go along with 23 fumbles as well. But best believe a team is going to look over all of his flaws, see what he was in 2011, and think they could fix him. Question is, in what round do they pull the trigger?
12. Tajh Boyd Clemson 6’1 222lbs rSr. Grade: 5th Round
Career Stats: 40 Starts 901-1402 64% 107 TD 39 INT 505 carries 1165 yards 26 TD
Boyd is arguably the most productive quarterback in ACC history, responsible for 133 TD passing and rushing, while leading Clemson back to being a winning program again.
As a passer, Boyd has the arm talent to make any throw asked of him. He really throws the deep ball well, puts plenty of air on the ball, allowing his WR’s to run under the ball. For stretches, he can really be accurate as a passer period, but he also goes through stretches in which his ball placement is off. The cause is easy to see on film, inconsistent mechanics, leads to poor ball placement. He also leaves the pocket to early at times instead of getting the ball out on time to open targets in stride. Boyd’s completion % is a bit overblown given the amount of bubble screens he throws in that spread offense at Clemson.
Boyd is a prospect with good physical tools, can move and make plays with his legs, but most improve as a passer from the pocket and improve his decision making under pressure. I see him as a 5th round pick who a team with a current starter will attempt to develop.
13. Stephen Morris Miami 6’2 213lbs Sr. Grade: 5th Round
Career Stats: 30 Starts 551-955 58% 7,896 yards 49 TD 30 INT
The nickname I gave Stephen Morris when watching his film is ” Jekyll and Hyde”. At times he shows off his strong arm, makes some unbelievable throws down the field with accuracy, leaves me in awe. And then there are plays that leave you scratching your head, wondering how did he miss that open target or why would he throw the ball into coverage. That is what Morris is in a nutshell. Physically gifted, great arm, mobility, but issues with accuracy and decision making are the reason why he’s a 5th round pick in my opinion.
14. Keith Wenning Ball St. 6’3 218lbs Sr. Grade: 7th Round
Career Stats: 47 starts 1035-1642 63% 11,402 yards 92 TD 42 INT
Keith Wenning has 47 starts under his belt, good for a QB entering the NFL, in a dink and dunk system at Ball St., in the MAC conference. He doesn’t possess a great arm, it’s average at best, he is pretty accurate throwing the ball short area,but when asked to drive it down the field his lack of arm strength is obvious. He got away with some weak passes, versus low level competition. Not a guy who can extend plays with his feet, he is strictly a pocket passer, with limited ability.
15. Connor Shaw South Carolina 6’0 206lbs Sr. Grade: 7th Round
Career Stats: 32 starts 480-733 65.5% 6,074 yards 56 TD 16 INT 452 carries 1,683 17 TD
Shaw was a three year starter who made who’s toughness, character, and leadership made him the face and leader of the South Carolina football. He clearly wasn’t the most talented guy on the team, but his hard work and willingness to play through pain and injuries set the tone for the football team.
Shaw has a long delivery when passing the ball, mediocre arm strength, which allows defenders to get there hands on balls. The offense in his senior year was more tailored to his strengths, a lot of quick one reads and if the first read wasn’t there, he took off running. Me personally, I think he’s not a good enough passer to be a backup QB, and I would seriously consider moving him to safety. He’s a good enough athlete and more then tough enough to make a team as a special teams demon, running down, covering kicks and punts.
