32 Teams, 32 Predictions: Final Grades (Part 1: AFC)

Just before the start of the NFL season I sat down on my computer with a mission to prove how bold, smart, and clear my NFL crystal ball was. I would love to just brag about my successes and ignore my failures but instead below will be a comprehensive look at how my preseason prognosticating worked out. We will see hoe close I came to projecting each team’s record and fantasy MVP and then see how close my bold prediction came to coming true. Each team will then wrap up with a grade from A-F that will score me based on how accurate my predictions for each team turned out to be.

New England Patriots

Projected Record: 12-4
Actual Record: 12-4

Projected Fantasy MVP: Rob Gronkowski
Actual Fantasy MVP: Julian Edleman

Bold Prediction: Chandler Jones will nearly triple his sack total from his rookie season (6) with 15 sacks.
Jones increased his sack total from 6 to 11.5. It wasn’t quite triple but it was basically double.

Final Grade: B

Miami Dolphins  

Projected Record: 8-8
Actual Record:8-8

Projected Fantasy MVP: Lamar Miller
Actual Fantasy MVP: Brian Hartline

Bold Prediction: Ryan Tannehill will double his touchdown production and maintain at least a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
This was half right. Tannehill did exactly double his touchdown production from 12 to 24. Unfortunately for me, and the Dolphins, Tannehill threw 17 costly interceptions making his ratio 24:17 or 5 interceptions too many to accomplish a 2:1 ratio.

Final Grade: B+

Buffalo Bills

Projected Record: 6-10
Actual Record: 6-10

Projected Fantasy MVP: CJ Spiller
Actual Fantasy MVP: Fred Jackson

Bold Prediction: EJ Manuel will be named the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
As I write this, the award for OROTY hasn’t been awarded, but I can say with complete certainty that Manuel won’t be the winner (Eddie Lacy?). Manuel showed flashes as times but didn’t stay on the field long enough for Bills fans or coaches to get a sense of what kind of a player Manuel will be.

Final Grade: C+

New York Jets

Projected Record: 2-14
Actual Record: 8-8

Projected Fantasy MVP: uhh… pass
Actual Fantasy MVP: uhh… pass

Bold Prediction: The Jets will be 0-9 as they enter their bye week.
I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Jets. I underestimated how good of a coach Rex Ryan is. At the bye, the Jets were 5-4 after starting the season with a win and never going on a 2 game streak in either direction.

Final Grade: D-

Cincinnati Bengals 

Projected Record: 11-5
Actual Record: 11-5

Projected Fantasy MVP: AJ Green
Actual Fantasy MVP: AJ Green

Bold Prediction: For the first time since 1988, the Bengals will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
After a disastrous playoff loss at home to the Chargers, the Bengals will not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but they could have. In retrospect, the Bengals fell short of the large plans I had for them because they weren’t good enough at quarterback. The Bengals will need to spend the offseason trying to decide if Andy Dalton is good enough to take this team past the first round of the playoffs.

Final Grade: A-

Baltimore Ravens

Projected Record: 9-7
Actual Record: 8-8

Projected Fantasy MVP: Ray Rice
Actual Fantasy MVP: Justin Tucker

Bold Prediction: The Ravens will not get a chance to defend their championship. They will miss the playoffs.
I nailed this one. The Ravens opened the season giving up 7 touchdown passes to Peyton Manning and the Broncos and never regained the championship groove they established during the playoffs last year. After signing a big contract in the offseason, Joe Flacco had one of his worst years in the NFL. Also, Ray Rice had a miserable season rushing for over 100 yards only 1 time.

Final Grade: A-

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Record: 7-9
Actual Record: 8-8

Projected Fantasy MVP: Issac Redman
Actual Fantasy MVP: Antonio Brown

Bold Prediction: Issac Redman will be the only running back on the team to rush for over 1,000 yards.
Yikes. What was I thinking? Redman finished the season exactly 988 yards short of 1,000. He had only 10 carries for 12 yards and finished the season as the Steelers eighth leading rusher. He played in only the first three games before being a healthy scratch until he was released on October 21.

Final Grade: D+

Cleveland Browns

Projected Record: 7-9
Actual Record: 4-12

Projected Fantasy MVP: Trent Richardson
Actual Fantasy MVP: Josh Gordon

Bold Prediction: Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, Trent Richardson, and Phil Taylor will all make the Pro-Bowl.
Joe Thomas and Joe Haden made the Pro-Bowl. Trent Richardson was traded and Phil Taylor started 15 games and had 2 sacks. Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and Alex Mack will also represent the Browns in Hawaii.

Final Grade: C

Houston Texans

Projected Record: 11-5
Actual Record: 2-14

Projected Fantasy MVP: Ben Tate
Actual Fantasy MVP: Andre Johnson

Bold Prediction: Ben Tate, not Arian Foster, will lead the Texans in rushing yards.
Tate did lead the Texans with 771 rushing yards or 229 more than Foster.

Final Grade: C

Indianapolis Colts

Projected Record: 9-7
Actual Record: 11-5

Projected Fantasy MVP: Reggie Wayne
Actual Fantasy MVP: Andrew Luck

Bold Prediction: Reggie Wayne will establish new career highs in receptions, reviving yards and touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Wayne, the Colts and my bold prediction Wayne suffered a season ending knee injury during the Colts 7th game of the season. Wayne finished with 38 receptions for 503 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Final Grade: C+

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Record: 6-10
Actual Record: 4-12

Projected Fantasy MVP: Maurice Jones-Drew
Actual Fantasy MVP: uh… pass

Bold Prediction: Blaine Gabbert will throw for over 3,00o yards and will have a quarterback rating over 100.
Before the season, I was willing to boldly predict a moderate amount of success for Gabbert. At this point, it isn’t all that bold to say that Gabbert will never have success as an NFL quarterback. The former 10th overall pick passed for only 481 yards and finished the season with a QBR of 36.

Final Grade: D+

Tennessee Titans

Projected Record: 4-12
Actual Record: 7-9

Projected Fantasy MVP: Chris Johnson
Actual Fantasy MVP: Chris Johnson

Bold Prediction: Jake Locker will finish the season without a 300 yard passing game.
Locker played in at least part of 7 games before ending up on season ending injured reserve. Locker threw for 326 yards against the 49ers on October 20. It was his only 300-yard game of the season.

Final Grade: B-

Denver Broncos

Projected Record: 14-2
Actual Record: 13-3

Projected Fantasy MVP: Demaryius Thomas
Actual Fantasy MVP: Peyton Manning

Bold Prediction: The Broncos will host the AFC Championship game but will fall short of the Super Bowl.
This prediction could still go either way. We do know that if the Broncos play in the AFC Championship game they will get to host it. It will be up to the Patriots or the Colts to make the other half of the prediction correct.

Final Grade: INC

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Record: 9-7
Actual Record: 11-5

Projected Fantasy MVP: Jamaal Charles
Actual Fantasy MVP: Jamaal Charles

Bold Prediction: Charles will finish the season with over 2,000 rushing yards.
Charles only rushed for 1,287 yards but he also had 693 receiving yards. In all, Charles finished the season with 1,980 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns.

Final Grade: B

Oakland Raiders

Projected Record: 4-12
Actual Record: 4-12

Projected Fantasy MVP: Darren McFadden
Actual Fantasy MVP: Rashad Jennings

Bold Prediction: McFadden will play all 16 games and gain over 2,000 yards from scrimmage while scoring 15 touchdowns.
This prediction would have been spot on if it were about Jamaal Charles. It appears McFadden will never have a monster season in the NFL and will always fall short of the expectations Raiders Nation had for him when they drafted him 4th overall. McFadden played in 10 games, gained 487 yards from scrimmage and scored 5 touchdowns.

Final Grade: C

San Diego Chargers

Projected Record: 4-12
Actual Record: 8-8

Projected Fantasy MVP: Ryan Mathews
Actual Fantasy MVP: Ryan Mathews

Bold Prediction: Dwight Freeney will finish the season with double digit sacks.
Freeney played in 4 games and had only a half a sack before an injury ended his season.

Final Grade: C-

For Part 2 and the NFC, click here.