The Miami Dolphins haven’t played in a playoff game since 2008 and haven’t won a postseason game since 2000. On Sunday, they will have a chance to change both of those as they will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in the AFC Wild-Card Game.
Miami (10-6) surprisingly clinched the AFC second wild-card after a 1-4 start. It was their win over the Steelers in Week 6 that began their turnaround as the Dolphins won sixth straight games after that. The Dolphins ended the season winning nine out of their last 11 games to close out the 2016 season.
Unlike Miami, many expected Pittsburgh (11-5) to return to the playoffs as they won the AFC North division and finished the season as the No. 3 seed in the conference. After losing four start games from weeks 6-10, the Steelers won seven consecutive games to end the regular season.
In their earlier matchup in Week 6, the Dolphins upset the Steelers 30-15 behind 204 rushing yards from Jay Ajayi.
This is the third meeting between the Dolphins and Steelers in the playoffs as Miami holds a 2-1 advantage in those games.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Kickoff: Sunday, January 8, 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Pittsburgh -10
Three Things to Watch
- Jay Ajayi
Some people might say the play of Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore is one of the keys for the Dolphins on offense. While that might be partially correct, the play of Ajayi will likely determine if the Dolphins have a legitimate chance to pull off the upset. Ajayi’s 204 yards rushing was the first of three times the running back ran over 200 yards in a game this season. He ended the season rushing for 1,272 yards and eight touchdowns.
Pittsburgh’s rushing defense has improved since last playing Ajayi in Week 6. For one, linebacker Ryan Shazier was injured and did not play in the first meeting against the Dolphins. In 13 games, Shazier registered 87 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and three interceptions.
Steelers will also get Stephon Tuitt back after he missed the last two games due to a knee injury he suffered against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15.
During the regular season, the Steelers allowed an average 100 rushing yards a game, which ranked 13th in the league. Ajayi averaged 3.92 yards per contact against the Steelers in Week 6, so wrapping up will be a key for the Steelers defense.
- Antonio Brown vs. Dolphins Secondary
Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown is arguably the best players at his position, but the Dolphins did a good job containing him in Week 6. In their first meeting, Brown was held to four catches for 39 yards on the day. A big reason the Dolphins did a good job against Brown was the play of cornerback Byron Maxwell, but Miami could be without him on Sunday.
Maxwell is listed as doubtful as he hasn’t played since injuring his ankle in Week 15 against the New York Jets. Against the Steelers, Maxwell was targeted eight times as he only allowed just four receptions for 29 yards (23 yards from Brown).
If Maxwell is out, that will put a lot of pressure on both Xavien Howard and Tony Lippett, who both will be playing in their first playoff game. Miami will also be without both starting safeties as Reshad Jones (shoulder) and Isa Abdul-Quddus (neck) (who both played in the Week 6 meeting) who are out for the season. So the two safety positions is something else to watch for in the Dolphins secondary.
- Steelers Offensive Line vs. Dolphins Defensive Line
Miami has two studs on their defensive line in Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake. They both will be tested as the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Pittsburgh has allowed only sacks on 3.52 percent of their passes this season, which is the second-best in the NFL. That allows quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to be patient so his receivers and even Le’Veon Bell can find openings in their opponent’s defense down the field.
Wake recorded 11.5 sacks and 24 quarterback hits this season. Suh had five sacks and 17 sacks. In the earlier meeting, the Dolphins were able to sack Roethlisberger twice, 1.5 of those came from defensive end Andre Branch.
Miami injured Roethlisberger’s left knee and held him to 189 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Week 6. So, Miami will need to turn up the pressure once again against the Steelers star quarterback.
Final Analysis
No matter how Sunday’s game goes for the Dolphins, this has been a successful season for head coach Adam Gase in his first season. Make no mistake about it, the Dolphins can certainly pull off the upset but their defense will need to play better than it did the last two weeks of the season.
Miami has given up 985 yards on defense the last two weeks and the Dolphins won’t get a break against a Steelers offense that was ranked seventh in the league during the regular season as they averaged 372.6 yards per game. The Dolphins contained Bell and Brown in Week 6, but that was when the team was at full strength and that certainly isn’t the case on Sunday.
Twitter: @antwanstaley
