The NFL is full of Conventional Wisdom. Conventional Wisdom states that if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. Conventional Wisdom states that a quarterback controversy is a bad thing. Conventional Wisdom states that you don’t lose your starting job over injury.
Conventional Wisdom is very frequently wrong.
After Colin Kaepernick’s stellar first start for the San Francisco 49ers, the quarterback controversy talk started, and head coach Jim Harbaugh poured gasoline on the flames in the post game press conference when asked about whether Kaepernick would get the next start.
“We’ll see,” Harbaugh said. “I usually tend to go with the guy who’s got the hot hand. And we’ve got two quarterbacks that have a hot hand.”
That leaves the door wide open, and you can’t blame him. Kaepernick was in full command of the offense on Monday night. The Bears have one of the top defenses in the league, and were second to the 49ers in points allowed coming into the game, but the 49ers scored on their first four possessions and dominated from wire to wire.
Kaepernick ended the night 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 TDs, no INTs and a QB rating of 133.1. Beyond the numbers, he made good decisions all night, protected the ball, and made some outstanding pinpoint throws.
On his TD pass to Michael Crabtree in the third quarter, he looked off his first two options, floated out of the pocket toward the sideline to buy time and found Crabtree breaking open in the endzone. He didn’t try to force it in and he didn’t try to take off and run, despite his exceptional running skills.
In the second half, when the Bears started throwing more blitzes and fake blitzes at the 49ers to disguise their coverages, Kaepernick remained calm and played within the offense. Despite the 49ers using him in a Wildcat formation earlier in the season (now dubbed the Wild Kaep), he has the talent to be a starter and to play very effectively from the pocket. He did have 4 rushes for 12 yards yesterday, but he is no Tim Tebow. He looked more like a younger, faster Ben Roethlisberger, and he looked like a quarterback that could lead his team to a Super Bowl.
Don’t take anything away from Alex Smith, who has emerged as one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league over the last two years. He is currently third in the NFL in passer efficiency, trailing only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning, and slightly ahead of Tom Brady who is in fourth. Smith is leading the league in completion percentage and prior to his concussion, he had completed 26 of his last 28 passes.
But quite frankly, the 49ers looked even sharper with Kaepernick under center, and the team needs to look at what Kaep can do to determine if he is the guy to lead them to the Promised Land and a sixth Lombardi Trophy. It is only one game, but it’s impossible to overlook a performance like that against one of the top defenses in the league.
So what of the Conventional Wisdom? Having two quarterbacks is only a problem if neither of them is really good enough to start. When the 49ers had Steve Young backing up Joe Montana, no one ever accused them of not having a quarterback. It was difficult, as Young will attest to this day and quite frankly it took someone with the character of Steve Young to make that situation work. It can make the locker room difficult, but Harbaugh has his hand firmly on the rudder, and is capable of navigating those rough waters.
And as to the “you don’t lose your starting job to injury” rule, just ask Drew Bledsoe. When he went down in 2001, the Patriots went with their second year quarterback, who was a sixth round draft pick from the previous. Tom Brady was never in danger of giving the job back to Bledsoe.
Still, it is only one start. Alex Smith is a quiet, efficient leader, and has proven he can win in the playoffs, winning a huge shoot out with Drew Brees and the Saints last season. Kaepernick is young and fiery, with piles of potential. Both are humble and willing to work together, at least for now. Smith is still recovering, so it is unclear if he will be ready to go next week anyway. I feel better,” Smith said on Monday. “I’m kind of in the middle of it [recovery-wise].”
Harbaugh would be wise to let Smith take his time recovering and give Kaepernick one more start. And after taking on the Bears, it would be very interesting to see what Kaepernick can do against the 49ers next opponent, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the worst defense in the league, currently 31st against the pass and 32nd against the run (very rare for a team to rank that low in both categories).
Alex Smith is probably the quarterback for this year. Probably. But with six games left, there is still a little time to evaluate. Ultimately, Harbaugh needs to figure out who is going to lead the team into the post season, but he can take another week Kaepernick in the starting role before locking in.
It’s no slight to Smith, who has earned a tremendous amount of respect around the league, but the only thing that matters in the NFL is winning. Harbaugh has some tough decisions coming.
