The Buffalo Bills are in Kansas City to take on the Chiefs this afternoon in a pivotal AFC match up.
The Bills and Chiefs both enter the game at 5-5, tied for the sixth and final playoff spot with four other teams in the conference. The winner of this one takes a big step towards the postseason while the losing team will be left scrambling for a late season run to get them in.
Here are the five things to watch for.
Can Tyrod Taylor bounce back?
It is no secret that Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor is banged up heading into this game.
After already missing two games due to a knee injury, one that has zapped Taylor of some of his rushing ability (only 13 yards on the ground in two games since his return), Taylor enters this contest with a banged up shoulder that greatly impacted his ability to throw the football this past Monday night against the New England Patriots.
Taylor is coming off his arguably worst start of the season.
He finished the Monday night game going 20 of 36 for 233 yards and missed badly on any ball he tried to put down the field.
The shine is starting to rub off of Taylor as the season has gone on, and the offense has been sluggish to say the least over the last few games.
Despite putting up some nice looking stats on paper, as a team the Bills have the most three-and-outs of any team in the league and in four or Taylor’s last five starts, Buffalo hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in the first half.
Taylor will need to bounce back in a big way against a stingy Chiefs defense who hasn’t allowed more than 18 points scored against them in their last six games.
The game plan won’t call for him to drop 35 times today, but when he get his chances, Taylor needs to show that he can still pick up chucks of yards with his arm.
Will the Chiefs keep rolling?
To make things worse for Buffalo is the fact that the Chiefs are absolutely rolling right now.
After starting the year off at a dreadful 1-5, Kansas City has completely flipped the script, winning four straight games by an average of 23 points.
They are playing smart football on both sides of the ball, forcing 12 takeaways while just turning the ball over once themselves during their current run.
They’re at home in Arrowhead for the first time in more than a month, which will make it a very loud afternoon in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.
The Bills’ better be ready to match the Chiefs early intensity.
If Buffalo can’t get the crowd out of it, it will make for a very long afternoon.
Keep feeding McCoy
LeSean McCoy is as close to 100 perfect as he is getting this season, and over the past few weeks it is really starting to stand out why Buffalo wanted to bring him in this offseason.
McCoy has looked like the Shady of year’s past, showing his insane footwork and elusiveness to go along with breakaway speed in averaging 92.8 yards rushing over his past five contests.
McCoy has also topped 100 yards from scrimmage in four consecutive games.
It what is expected to be a rainy day in Kansas City, McCoy will once again be featured today as the Bills’ primary weapon against a Chiefs defense ranked 5th against the run (92.6 yards per game).
If Buffalo is going to have any type of success today, they need to get their playmakers going, with the biggest one being their star running back.
McCoy is going to play a big part in this one, one way or the other as one of the deciding factors.
Next man up for Buffalo (in multiple spots)
The Bills will be without two of their top pass rushers, losing both Mario Williams (foot) and Kyle Williams (knee, placed on IR, ending his season) earlier in the week.
This means Alex Carrington and Corbin Bryant will continue to contribute, while putting a ton of pressure on Jerry Hughes, the teams top rusher in this one, to get constant pressure on quarterback Alex Smith.
Things don’t look any better on the other side of the ball, with starting right guard John Miller (ankle) lost for this game as well.
The Bills will now have to come up with a game plan to slow down Kansas City’s front seven, which is the biggest reason the Chiefs have been able to go on this mid-season run.
They have studs in Justin Houston (29.5 sacks in last 26 games played), Dontari Poe (24 tackles, 1 sack), Jaye Howard (43 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Mike DeVito (14 tackles, 2 sacks), who will all have to be accounted for.
Buffalo will need to adopt the next man up strategy for this one, as the line depth on both sides will be greatly tested.
Can Buffalo shut down another top tight end?
Travis Kelce’s status was up in the air after suffering an ankle sprain on Friday, but the injury isn’t serious enough for the young playmaker to not be able to give it a go.
Kelce (50 receptions for 620 yards, 3 touchdowns) is a red zone nightmare, and one that the Bills make sure they have enough attention draw to on every play.
Despite not reaching 50 receiving yards in three straight games, Kelce continues to rack up targets and is one of Alex Smith’s go-to players in an offense that doesn’t get groundbreaking numbers from the receiver position.
The Bills did a great job of shutting down Rob Gronkowski on Monday night (just two catches for 37 yards) and will look for that streak to continue against another elite pass catching tight end.
The key for Buffalo was not only getting pressure on the quarterback but also in the way they went about attacking Gronk.
They shifted coverage, constantly blanketing him throughout the entire game with different man and zone coverage looks.
There weren’t many times during the game that they just left Gronkowski by himself, and that trend will continue today.
A similar game plan will be needed to be used for Kelce to keep him and the rest of the Kansas City offense in check this afternoon.
Prediction
In what should be a run-heavy, low scoring game, I’m taking the Bills in this one. It is ultimately a toss-up between two very talented teams, but I don’t think the Chiefs posses enough playmakers on the offensive side of the ball to produce enough points in this one. It won’t be an exciting game per se, but a very physical one in which the winner will truly earn it and take firm control of their playoff race. Buffalo takes this one 20-13.
