Analyzing the NFL Playoff Picture

With week 14 already underway after the Cowboys’ win over the Bears, the race for playoff spots is becoming more and more heated. As Phil Simms once said, “I’m not a guy that believes you’ve got to have a lot of experience to have success in the playoffs.” Yes, experience is one critical part, but it is not the complete puzzle. At this point in the season, what is most important is whether or not you even have a chance to participate in the NFL playoffs.

Here is the current state in the playoff race:

AFC (in order of seeding):
North – New England Patriots 9-3
West – Denver Broncos 9-3
North – Cincinnati Bengals 8-3-1
South – Indianapolis Colts 8-4
Wild Card – San Diego Chargers 8-4
Wild Card – Miami Dolphins 7-5

Still in the hunt – Kansas City Chiefs (7-5), Buffalo Bills (7-5), Baltimore Ravens (7-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5), Cleveland Browns (7-5), Houston Texans (6-6)

Will the absence of Haloti Ngata cost the Ravens a playoff spot?

NFC (in order of seeding):
West – Arizona Cardinals 9-3
North – Green Bay Packers 9-3
East – Philadelphia Eagles 9-3
South – Atlanta Falcons 5-7
Wild Card – Dallas Cowboys 9-4
Wild Card – Seattle Seahawks 8-4

Still in the hunt – Detroit Lions (8-4), San Francisco 49ers (7-5), New Orleans Saints (5-7), Minnesota Vikings (5-7), St. Louis Rams (5-7), Chicago Bears (5-8), Carolina Panthers (3-8-1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10)

Observations
Based on the current standings, there are a few things that stand out. First off, the wild card race in the AFC is anybody’s game. However, some teams are in better position than others. For example, the Ravens just lost star defensive tackle Haloti Ngata for four games due to suspension, which will be a large advantage for the Dolphins in their upcoming matchup. Expect Miami running back Lamar Miller to have some more running room up the middle in Ngata’s absence. Another team still in the hunt is the Chiefs, who come in to week 14, after a couple of disappointing losses to the Broncos and Raiders. Despite this, a winnable matchup with Drew Stanton’s Cardinals is on the plate this weekend followed by another game with the Raiders (this time at Arrowhead). Surprisingly, the Browns are also still out there. After a few days of controversy on whether or not the Johnny Football era would start, Coach Mike Pettine made it clear Brian Hoyer would still lead the offense, but potentially will have a shorter leash.

Like this quote from Josh Cribbs. Says "it smells like playoffs here." Different than his Cleveland days

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) December 5, 2014

The NFC is not as tight as the AFC, but still presents plenty of enticing scenarios. The first one comes in the NFC South. For a division that looked to fairly competitive, it has most likely been the worst division in football thus far. Currently, the Falcons lead the division with only a 5-7 record. With this being the case, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still have hope (although it is slim) with their 2-10 record. Don’t give up hope just yet Bucs fans! Another team still fighting is the Detroit Lions. They are most likely going to be playing for a wild card spot unless the Packers slip up in one of their games. Nevertheless, matchups against Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago precede a week 17 game in Lambeau against the Packers. If they were to take care of the next three opponents, a lot may be on the line in the final week, including a possible number one seed in the playoffs.

Week 14 Games to Watch
In this week, there are plenty of games with playoff implications. Here are a couple worth checking out:

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati – 1 PM EST
This AFC North showdown might determine who ends up coming out of that division, although a wild card team could also make it from the north. Expect a heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell in this one as he has been nearly impossible to stop in recent weeks.

The Countdown to Kickoff has begun. Get a complete breakdown of @steelers at Bengals. READ: http://t.co/nJxgBH8A9X pic.twitter.com/khtQ01TvnY

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 5, 2014

Baltimore @ Miami – 1 PM EST
For a game that once looked like a nightmare for the Dolphins’ running game, it just got easier with the suspension of Ngata. This one will probably come down to who is more effective between Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco, as both defenses are solid.

Kansas City @ Arizona – 4:05 PM EST
After a stunning start, Arizona has started to show some cracks, while the Chiefs have looked off in recent weeks. The Chiefs’ will need to pressure Stanton into some turnovers and find more ways to get the ball to star Jamaal Charles, as he was clearly underutilized in the loss to Denver.

Atlanta @ Green Bay – 8:30 PM EST Monday
This isn’t expected to be a close game with the Packers favored by 12.5 points, but both teams right now are slated to be playoff teams. The Packers should win this game, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons should be motivated to keep this close with their playoff spot being potentially on the line. The Saints will play hosts to the Panthers, so the Falcons could be a game down if they drop this one.