This won’t be the first year the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots have played in the AFC Championship. The last time these two teams played with a Super Bowl trip on the line was in 2006, when the Colts defeated the Patriots 38-34.
While it will be Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady’s ninth AFC Championship game, this will be the first for Colts head coach Chuck Pagano and quarterback Andrew Luck.
Indianapolis will be underdogs on Sunday because of their recent history against New England. Not only have the Colts lost their last three meetings against the Patriots, they have been outscored 144-66 in those three contests. The biggest difference in those game is the play of Luck.
While Luck has looked like an All-Pro against most teams, he has been a mere mortal against New England. He has a completion percentage of 53.8, a 67.7 passer rating and six touchdowns against eight interceptions in his career against the Patriots.
Luck has an interception percentage of 6.2 against New England, which is the worst he has against any opponent. While Luck hasn’t had any success against the Patriots, he is blocking out the past and focusing on Sunday’s game.
“I think after all of those games, you sort of move on and you move onto the next one,” said Luck. “That hasn’t grinded on me, in
a sense, on my mind this week. You do look back on the film and try and glean some information about scheme, glean some things like
that. It’s a new game and a new opportunity.”
One reason for the Patriots recent success against the Colts is the way they have run the football against them. In the 2013 AFC Divisional Round, New England rushed for 234 yards, including 166 yards and four touchdowns by LeGarrette Blount in 43-22 win over Indianapolis.
In Week 11 of the 2014 season, the Patriots defeated the Colts 42-20 behind running back Jonas Gray’s 201 yards and four touchdowns. While the Colts have played better against the run in the playoffs, Pagano knows that stopping the Patriots’ running attack is priority number one.
“The numbers speak for themselves,” said Pagano. “They’re able to run the ball the way that they’ve run it the last couple meetings, then we’re going to have a long, hard day. I think our guys are playing with a tremendous amount of confidence right now and our run defense has been as good as it’s been. We’ve had some moments obviously this year, but again, we’ve got to go do the job. Talking about it is one thing, but we’ve got to go up there and we’ve got to do the job and stop the run.”
Against two of the hottest running backs in the NFL, Jeremy Hill of the Cincinnati Bengals and C.J. Anderson of the Denver Broncos, the Colts have allowed 198 yards rushing in two games. The per-game average of 99 yards is the lowest among all the teams playing on championship weekend.
Not only has the Colts rushing defense improved, so has their pass defense. The team held Broncos’ quarterback Peyton Manning to 211 yards on 26-for-46 pass attempts. Former Miami Dolphins first round pick Vontae Davis has been the best player on the Colts secondary all season long.
Davis recorded 42 tackles and four interceptions and was selected to his first Pro Bowl in 2014. Davis along with fellow cornerbacks Greg Toler and Darius Butler, bottled-up Denver’s receivers all day last week. Yes Manning didn’t perform up to his usual standards, but the Denver receivers had trouble getting open against the Colts secondary.
The problem for Indianapolis is their secondary comes into the AFC Championship banged up. Davis (knee) and Toler (groin) both missed practice on Wednesday. They will need both players if the Colts are to come up victorious against Tom Brady and the Patriots offense.
Last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Brady threw for 367 yards, three touchdowns against only one interception. Tight end Rob Gronkowski caught seven balls for 108 yards and two touchdowns.
Indianapolis will insert safety LaRon Landry in their attempt to slow down Gronkowski. Belchick believes the addition of Landry will change the way the Colts will play defensively.
“He definitely adds a physical element to that defense,” said Belichick. “He only played seven or eight plays against us in the first game. That’s a guy that we didn’t see a lot of, but he’s definitely a force”
With questions about the Colts secondary, look for Brady and the Patriots to start throwing the football to begin the game. Then New England will let their passing game open up their running game.
Luck had a coming of age game against the Broncos last week, but he will need to have an even better performance against New England this weekend. He will probably need to have a game where he doesn’t turn the ball over. The problem is, he has been turnover prone against the Patriots.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Colts 21
You can follow Antwan on Twitter @blackredsoxfan
