As we get ready for the Combine later this month, and the NFL Draft in April – the two premier events of NFL football between the Super Bowl and training camp – it’s a good time to look back and see how last year’s top draft picks performed. One year is a little early to grade out a draft class, but even after only one year, this was a stronger-than-anticipated draft class with lots of impact players and Pro Bowlers already emerging just among the top ten. Four of the top 5 players selected in the draft last year played in this season’s Pro Bowl, and that’s a pretty impressive record.
The performance of last year’s top ten will put even more pressure on this year’s class. And it’s enough to make fans of those teams that “earned” top 10 draft choices optimistic. And as another note of optimism for those high-picking teams – only 3 teams with top 10 picks in 2011 are back in 2012 – the Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars. And of those, only the Jaguars “improved” their position by coming back with a worse record this year.
Number 1 – Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Expectations are always high for the number one pick in the draft, but Newton shattered even the rosiest predictions for his rookie season. He was widely believed to have tremendous upside, but that he would need a year or two to get up to speed. Instead, he came out of the gate passing for over 400 yards in each of his first two games, and finished the season with 4,051 yards, 21 TDs and 17 INTs, the best rookie quarterback season ever, surpassing Peyton Manning’s rookie year.
And that’s just throwing the ball. When you factor in his 706 yards rushing and 14 rushing TDs, he had a phenomenal first year. His 14 rushing TDs broke the record for rushing TDs by a quarterback (not just rookies) and he was only 4 TDs off the rookie rushing TD record for a running back (sent by Eric Dickerson). With a few more weapons around him, it’s scary to think what he could do. He earned a well-deserved trip to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season.
Number 2 – Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Miller was another instant impact player, and his play helped to boost the Broncos defense which kept Tim Tebow and the offense in a lot of games this season and helped the Broncos into the playoffs. Miller had 11.5 sacks, tied for 9th in the league, along with 64 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. He may not have blown expectations out of the water like Newton, but he certainly lived up to the high expectations of the number two overall pick in the draft. He also earned a trip to the Pro Bowl in his first year.
Number 3 – Marcell Dareus, DT, Buffalo Bills
Dareus brought some size and strength to the Bills defensive line, and helped the Bills get off to a fast 5-2 start, before a string of key injuries decimated the team and they dropped seven straight. The 6-foot-3, 340 pound defensive tackle had a solid rookie campaign, with 43 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 1 fumble recovery, but he was hampered with injuries as well as he played through minor injuries to his ankle, hand and shoulder. He looks to be a solid anchor for that Bills line, although he didn’t have the depth of impact of many of the other top 10 picks from last year.
Number 4 – A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Green came in with tremendous natural talent, but with Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco replaced by two rookies – Green and second round draft pick Andy Dalton – it was expected that the Bengals offense would need a year or two to gel. Instead, Green pulled in 65 catches for 1,057 yards and 7 TDs in his rookie year, and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl. He made some eye-popping acrobatic catches along the way, showing his raw athletic ability and he developed a great chemistry seemlingly immediately with Dalton. Another excellent start.
Number 5 – Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals
Peterson is a cornerback by trade, and had a respectable season playing defense with 64 tackles, 2 INTs and 1 sack, but he made a huge impact on special teams. He tied the NFL record for most punt returns for TDs in a season (4) and also set the record for the most punt return yards by a rookie with 699. He showed Devin Hester-like return ability, and was a Pro Bowl selection and a first team All Pro in his rookie year. Peterson also exceeded his already high expectations.
Number 6 – Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Jones was the second receiver taken in the 2011 draft, and another great natural talent. His rookie year showed what he was capable of, as he caught 54 passes for 959 yards, with a staggering 17.8 yard per catch average, 7th in the league. He had five 100-yard games and added 8 TDs, showing the game breaking speed and deep play ability that led to him being drafted so high – including touchdowns of 75 and 80 yards. Against Indianapolis, he had 3 catches for 131 yards and 2 TDs, and added 33 rushing yards on 2 carries for 164 yards with only 5 touches. The Falcons have a true deep threat, and should be a challenger to go deeper in the playoffs next season.
Number 7 – Aldon Smith, DE/LB, San Francisco 49ers
Smith was believed to be a reach by the 49ers when he was taken seventh overall, but he turned out to be one of the steals of the draft as he recorded 14 sacks, tying him for fifth in the league. Smith showed amazing closing speed on his pass rush, and also added 37 tackles and 2 forced fumbles as he was a key addition to a 49ers defense that went from mediocre to elite in one season. He earned the Pro Football Weekly Defensive Rookie of the Year, beating out Von Miller for the honor.
Number 8 – Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans
Locker saw limited playing time this year, seeing action in only 5 games, but he showed some flashes of brilliance while he was out there, and is expected to challenge for the starting job next season. He finished the year attempting only 66 passes, the equivalent of 2-3 full games, but ended with a 99.4 passer rating. Only 4 full time starters finished the year better than that. He completed over 50 percent of his passes for 542 yards with 4 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and no interceptions. He added 56 rushing yards on only 8 attempts, showing good mobility. While his playing time was limited, he looked very solid when he was on the field and looks like a high quality NFL starter in the making.
Number 9 – Tyron Smith, OT, Dallas Cowboys
The only offensive lineman taken in the top ten, Smith made an impact immediately. It can be difficult to work into a starting rotation, but the 6-foot-5, 311 pound tackle started all 16 games for the Dallas Cowboys at right tackle, and made the NFL All Rookie Team. He helped solidify the Cowboys offensive line, as Tony Romo had one of the best years of his career, passing for over 4,000 yards and 31 TDs, and he helped clear the way for fellow rookie DeMarco Murray, who ran for almost 900 yards and averaged 5.5 yards per carry.
Number 10 – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert was the only one of the top 10 to have a disappointing first season, as he looked like he needed more time to get comfortable with the offense. Gabbert had the lowest passer rating in the league at 65.4, throwing for 2,214 yards with 12 TDs and 11 INTs. He showed some improvement later in the season, as his completion percentage improved each month, and he will be given the opportunity to improve on his performance next year with a full offseason of work.
