Now that Peyton Manning has made his decision, the biggest question of free agency is settled and the rest of the free agent quarterbacks will have to find their dance partners quickly. The NFL quarterback rotation is turning into quite a soap opera this off season.
Manning had reduced his list of candidates to Denver, San Francisco and Tennessee prior to deciding on Monday to go with the Broncos. Tennessee already has last year’s starter Matt Hasselbeck under contract along with last year’s first round draft pick Jake Locker. Locker looked solid in brief appearances last year and could challenge Hasselbeck, so although they lost out on Manning, they look to be set at quarterback.
Things are not quite as simple in San Francisco, where the flirtation with Manning kept the 49ers from re-signing last year’s starter Alex Smith. While SF was busy in the Manning Bowl, Smith visited Miami on Sunday and met with the Dolphins, but seems destined to return to the 49ers now. Smith met with coach Jim Harbaugh for an hour on Monday, and the 49ers reaffirmed that their offer to Smith (3 years for about $24 million) remains on the table.
San Francisco is still the best location for Smith to play, as the team is poised to make a Super Bowl run. Smith blossomed under Harbaugh’s coaching, and led the 49ers to a 13-3 record and the NFC Championship game. Smith threw for 17 TDs and only 5 INTs, and the 49ers have invested heavily in improving their passing game, signing WRs Randy Moss and Mario Manningham already in free agency.
There will need to be some work by Harbaugh and the 49ers to repair the relationship, but they can offer Smith the opportunity to make a Super Bowl run this year in an offensive system he excelled in. They can also offer Smith something he hasn’t had in his career – a second year with the same offensive coordinator. Smith has had to learn a different offense every year since he was drafted first overall in 2005, and it seems unlikely that he will depart at this point.
His departure seems even less likely now that Miami pulled the trigger on Monday with former Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback David Garrard. Garrard was cut prior to last season and spent the entire year recovering from back surgery and now looks to be ready to play. The Dolphins had previously lost out Manning (where they made an early exit) and Matt Flynn (who signed with the Seattle Seahawks), and probably feared losing out on Smith as well now that the 49ers were back in play. Garrard will likely challenge last year’s starter Matt Moore in Miami, and Moore actually provided solid leadership particularly down the stretch where the Dolphins won 6 of their last 9 games.
With Manning in Denver, the Broncos are expected to look to trade Tim Tebow and he is starting to look like the odd man out these days. Most of the teams that need quarterbacks have either added them in free agency, or are poised to address their need in the draft, such as the Colts who are expected to take Andrew Luck with the first selection and the Redskins who traded three first round draft picks for the second overall pick to select Robert Griffin III.
The possible return of Tebow to Florida seems like a longshot, as the Dolphins have signed Garrard and the Jaguars have recently added Chad Henne as a back up and to push last year’s first round draft pick Blaine Gabbert, who struggled in his rookie season.
Given Tebow’s unique combination of strengths and weaknesses, some coach is going to have to fall in love with him or, more likely, wait for the Broncos to release him and try to pick him up cheaply. He could definitely fill stadiums in Florida, or most other locations around the league, as he emerged as one of the most popular players in the NFL last season, but he still needs time to develop as a NFL quarterback and without a defense as good as Denver’s to keep the game close, he could struggle with a lot of other teams.
Tebow showed great leadership ability and tenacity, and took over the 1-4 Broncos and led them to the playoffs, including a thrilling overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. It is impossible to imagine that he won’t have a starting job somewhere in the league next season, but the best he can hope for at this point is a chance to compete somewhere for a starting job. Although the list of candidates is shrinking rapidly, after what he accomplished last season, he deserves a chance.
