At T-minus one week, the NFL Draft is starting to take shape. Well, maybe “take shape” is an overstatement, but the rumor mill is kicking into high gear as some teams start to tip their hands and others start to spread dis-information to throw off their rivals.
In a move that surprised no one, a league source reported that the Colts have informed Andrew Luck that he will be the number one overall pick. That seemed to have been a foregone conclusion for months, despite owner Jim Irsay trying to generate some interest by pretending as if the Colts were undecided. It also seems to be a foregone conclusion that the Redskins will take Robert Griffin III with the second pick. They traded the family farm to move up to the number two pick, and have been meeting with Griffin for weeks going over the playbook.
The Minnesota Vikings are (virtually) on the clock with pick number three. They have been rumored for months to be taking USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil, but in recent days that has become far from a foregone conclusion. General manager Rick Spielman apparently has his list down to three choices – Kalil, LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, and Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon… or potentially trading down. “What you’re saying (to the staff) is, ‘All these guys have equal ability,’“ Spielman said. “What do you want? Do you want the receiver? Do you want the tackle? Do you want the corner?“
Who the Vikings pick will determine the next several picks. The Browns are sitting at number four, and have their list down to two players, although they aren’t tipping their hand. “We know we’re getting a really good player no matter what happens at three,” general manager Tom Heckert said. “We know we’re getting one of two guys, we just don’t know who is going to go at three. We’re extremely happy and excited with whoever is going to be there at four.”
That suggests that the Browns are probably looking at either Kalil (Heckert was asked about drafting a tackle, and said, “Obviously if you can get a really good one, it’s great.”) or perhaps Trent Richardson, who has been widely rumored to be the Browns choice if Kalil goes at three.
Following the Browns are the Buccaneers, Rams, Jaguars, and Dolphins, in that order. There’s some uncertainty here, depending on what the Vikings do, and if any of these teams wants to leapfrog the others to go after their guy. The Vikings and Browns are willing to listen to offers. The Dolphins are rumored to be interested in quarterback Ryan Tannehill, judged by some as a reach this early, but considered to have great long term potential. He may need a year or two to develop given his relatively recent transition to quarterback from wide receiver (only 19 starts in college).
And while the teams at picks three through eight are still scratching their head, 49ers general manager Trent Baalke sounds confident he knows who he’s going to be taking at pick number 30. “But there is one [player] in particular that we feel will be there. And if he is, we’ll be prepared to make the pick.” That’s a bold statement given the uncertainty of the 29 picks ahead of him, but the 49ers surprised everyone last year by making Aldon Smith the seventh overall selection, and he turned in an outstanding rookie season. Maybe Baalke knows something… or maybe it’s all gamesmanship.
We won’t know for certain until the draft opens on the 26th, so until then it’s just all mind games.
