As we hit the halfway point of the season, it’s a good time to take stock of things. We have a much better sense of who’s having a great season, who’s struggling and who has been a positive surprise. As part of our mid-season review, we took a look around the league at the QB position.
We have the privilege of living in an era of great QB play, and this season we’ve seen some exceptional things on the field. Unlike past years, it’s not just one or two players, but we have a number of elite quarterbacks this year, and a number of really pleasant surprises. And to be clear – we aren’t using the term “elite” loosely.
The Elite
The 5,000 yard barrier is a magical number – it’s only been reached twice in a season in NFL history. Dan Marino holds the record with 5,084 yards in 1984, and Drew Brees came close to breaking it with 5,069 yards in 2008. There are currently three QBs on pace to break that record, and they represent the elite this year, although we have a couple of honorable mentions as well.
Aaron Rodgers – The Packers QB is putting together one of the best seasons in NFL history, and has guided the defending champs to an 8-0 start. The numbers are astonishing – Rodgers is completing 72.5 percent of his passes (which would be a single season record), averaging 9.88 yards per attempt. That’s practically a first down every time he lets the ball go.
If his second half is the same as his first, he’ll end up with 5,232 yards, 48 touchdowns (2 shy of Tom Brady’s 2007 record), only 6 INTs, and an NFL record 129.1 QB efficiency. He is having the kind of season you see very infrequently – maybe Brady in 2007, Manning in 2004 – and he could potentially surpass both of them. That’s really elite company.
Tom Brady – It’s easy to take Brady for granted, and get distracted by games where he’s had interception problems (like his 4 against Buffalo) or where he’s looked a little more “mortal,” like in their last two losses. But he’s still at the top of the class. He’s leading the league in passing yardage (on pace for 5,408 yards this season, and has 20 TDs to 10 INTs. He’s also third in the league in passing efficiency. And with the Patriots last-ranked passing defense, he’s going to have to keeping flinging it to keep them competitive.
Drew Brees – Brees has been quietly racking up numbers comparable to his Super Bowl season from two years ago. He is second in the league in QB efficiency (to Rodgers) and yards (to Brady), and he has 21 TDs to 11 INTs. He’s still solid as a rock, and the Saints are in good hands and in first place in the NFC South.
Other Elites – I think Eli Manning and Matt Stafford have made the leap to the elite level this year as well. There are a number of good quarterbacks around the league, but we use the elite label sparingly. Manning made the claim in the off season that he deserved to be on that list, and he has backed it up this year – 297 yards per game, 15 TDs to 6 INTs and out-dueled Brady for a big win over the Patriots. Well done.
Stafford has the Lions at 6-2 and has thrown 19 TDs to only 4 INTs this year. He’s averaging over 270 yards per game and is fourth in the league in passing efficiency (99.1).
The Biggest Surprises
Alex Smith – Smith is one of the great comeback stories in the league this year, and worthy of consideration for comeback player of the year. He wasn’t even under contract with the team through the lockout, and yet emerged as a leader, organized the off season workouts and has become a winner under Harbaugh’s system.
In the 49ers system, Smith’s role is to manage the game and not create turnovers, which he is doing to perfection. Smith is only averaging 183 yards per game, but he has the fewest interceptions among active starters, with 2 INTs to 10 TDs. And he is sixth in the league in passing efficiency (97.3). Think of Trent Dilfer with the Super Bowl Champion Ravens of 2000. It’s a model for the 49ers 7-1 start this season.
Andy Dalton – The Bengals waited until the second round and took Dalton with the 35th pick overall. He was the fifth QB taken in the draft, as four went off the board in the first round. Dalton was the day one starter, due to the “retirement” and subsequent trade of Carson Palmer. He has hooked up with fellow rookie WR A.J. Green (filling in following the departure of Chad Ochocinco) to lead the Bengals to a 6-2 start and a share of first place in the AFC Central. They are riding a strong defense, but Dalton has 12 TDs to 7 INTs, a solid 85 QB passer rating, and is outplaying almost every other rookie QB. Except for one.
Cam Newton – It’s hard to be labeled one of the biggest surprises when you are the consensus number 1 overall draft pick, but in this lockout-shortened preseason, rookie quarterbacks were expected to struggle at first to learn the offense. And Newton was called by many a “project” as it was believed his game would take time to adapt to the pro level, while some of the other rookies, like Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert, were said to be more “NFL ready.”
Newton responded by throwing for over 400 yards in his first two games – something no rookie has ever done. He is averaging 299 yards per game, on pace for one of the top ten seasons in passing yardage ever (that’s EVER, not just rookies). He has 11 TDs to 9 INTs, and if those numbers weren’t impressive enough, he also has 319 yards rushing, and another 7 rushing TDs.
He has exceeded everyone’s expectations across the board. The only thing he hasn’t been able to do is win consistently, as they Panthers are 2-6. But Carolina earned that number one draft pick that they used to select Newton, and they’ll need another season to put enough pieces around him to turn this organization around.
But with Newton’s talent, they have a franchise quarterback who is already knocking on the door to the elite list, and will likely be there next year.
Biggest Disappointments
Obviously, there are a few QBs who have not lived up to what was hoped this year. And to be clear – this is not a list of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but quarterbacks of whom much was expected. They carried the burden of high expectations.
Donovan McNabb – He was brought in to be the quarterback of today, while Christian Ponder was supposed to be the quarterback of tomorrow. McNabb was unimpressive throwing for just 171 yards per game, with 4 TDs and 2 INTs in 5 starts, and has already made way for Ponder.
Philip Rivers – The Chargers QB has been averaging over 300 yards per game, but has 14 INTs in 8 games, to only 11 TDs, and he has made some key mistakes, such as the fumbled snap in the closing minutes of the Chiefs game. He’s also got 5 fumbles to go with the 14 INTs, so far too many mistakes and turnovers for a player of his caliber.
Sam Bradford – The Rams starter is 0-6, with only 3 TDs and 3 INTs in six games. He’s completing under 55 percent of his passes. Probably more damaging is the fact that their only win, over a much stronger New Orleans team, came with backup A.J. Feeley at the helm. Bradford looks to have regressed from last year, but he’s got the talent to overcome a sophomore jinx and return to being a top-notch starter.
