With fellow AFC teams like the San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Baltimore Ravens having the opportunity to get to nine wins this weekend, Buffalo’s matchup versus a hot Green Bay team that has won five straight games at an average margin of 18.8 points per game serves as essentially a last stand for their postseason hopes.
While the Bills are at least in some contention for a playoff spot at this point of the season since 2004, head coach Doug Marrone is not letting what the team has done this season, despite it’s obstacles, distract him from trying to get Buffalo to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
“I haven’t sat back and looked at it, but I know there were a lot of challenges that were a little bit different than what most people do,” said Marrone. “It’s still the same thing. It’s still our job to get the team prepared and go out there and win football games.”
The Bills host the Packers on Sunday, which should be an advantage, as Green Bay is only 3-3 on the road, averaging just 22.5 points per game compared to over 41 points a game at home. But Buffalo is only 3-3 at Ralph Wilson Stadium, averaging just 19.5 points per game, and this is the final true home game for the Bills, so an opportunity to get over .500 in games in front of their home fans is something the team wants to accomplish, according to Marrone.
“We haven’t been as consistent as we’ve wanted to be at home,” said Marrone. “That’s something that we have to establish for us to get where we want to go, but this game is a big game. We’re excited about playing at home in a big game. We’re excited about our crowd. They can make a difference. I really believe that. It’s shown through my two years here. Our players have to be able to feed off of that and go out there and play well.”
The Bills will need to play well in all phases, as while they were able to keep Peyton Manning from throwing a touchdown pass on Sunday, ending his 51 game streak with at least one touchdown pass, three points from the offense through the first three quarters put Buffalo in a 21-point hole that they could not dig out of. But Marrone doesn’t believe its because of a lack of readiness or being “flat”, but “more of a matter of being inconsistent”.
“That’s not the case,” Marrone said of the idea of the team being flat. “The case is that we need to continue to be more consistent and keep drives going and, like I said before, score when we get into the red zone. It’s not like we haven’t been in there. It’s not like we haven’t moved the ball better than we have in the past, but we haven’t scored. That’s what you need to do in this game to win. Defensively, there’s going to be about four or five plays a game, no matter how good you are or where you are, and you need to make sure those plays are contained and they don’t get much of it afterwards. Like I said, the games that we’ve won this year we played a complete game. When we do that we can challenge anyone.”
Playing a complete game means making sure that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t continue his magical season, as he currently has thrown 35 touchdowns (3rd in the NFL) to just 3 interceptions (tied for fewest among qualifying quarterbacks) on the season, with a league-high QBR of 86.3. If Rodgers does have an Achilles heel, however, just like the rest of his Packer teammates, its that his 23 touchdowns to 0 interception ratio playing at Lambeau Field is contrasted by a 12-3 touchdown-to-interception in road games this season, with his passer rating going down from 132.6 to 104.0 at home.
That being said, Rodgers is playing at a level few can compare to, though Marrone was asked about how Rodgers’ play this season looks in comparison to what Drew Brees, who Marrone coached as offensive coordinator of the Saints from 2006-2008, did in 2009 while leading the New Orleans Saints to a Super Bowl win (4,388 yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions).
“When you’re a quarterback and you’re getting on a run and you go to the Super Bowl, that’s pretty high,” said Marrone. “I think that they’re two different types of guys from the aspect of on-field characteristics. Aaron Rodgers can really extend plays. He can run. I don’t want to compare him to other people, but he has probably one of the quickest releases, if not the quickest release I’ve seen on tape. Even though he’s looking down field, as soon as he makes a decision to throw it, that ball comes out quick. It’s uncanny how, when you watch these defensive lineman and they get they’re hands on him, they can’t get him down. Some guys you see can get grabbed with one hand and brought down. Not him. They have different styles, but the common dominator is that both of those guys can get the ball down the field and score a lot of points.”
The Bills defense does come into this game having not allowed a touchdown pass in the last three games while picking off five passes, but two of those games were against the lowly Jets and the Cleveland Browns with a struggling Brian Hoyer. Plus, while Buffalo has overcome the loss of Leodis McKelvin to a season-ending broken ankle to play impressively on defense in the last three games, they may have to play without another starter, as safety Da’Norris Searcy only had limited participation on Thursday with a hamstring injury suffered on Sunday that forced Duke Williams to play some on Sunday against Denver.
“We’re progressing,” said Marrone. “He did some stuff today, but we’re going to see how it goes. He was out here today, tape up and going. It was from a limited status. He did individual.”
If Searcy is unable to make play, Williams, who was exposed on a few occasions in the Week 6 loss to New England by Rob Gronkowski, will have more responsibilities in both coverage and run support, and put the onus of Aaron Williams to help get the secondary set. Defending the Packers trio of Jordy Nelson (1,265 yards and 12 touchdowns), Randall Cobb (980 yards and 10 touchdowns), and emerging rookie Davante Adams (423 yards and 3 touchdowns) will be a chore for Stephon Gilmore, Corey Graham, and Nickell Robey, Robey especially due to Cobb’s ability to perform as one of the elite slot receivers in the game.
Update: Da’Norris Searcy has been ruled out for Sunday, along with wide receiver Mike Williams (calf) and tight end Chris Gragg (knee).
While the defense limiting the high-powered Green Bay is going to be the biggest key, the Bills need to take advantage of a Packers defense that is 25th in the NFL against the run, allowing over 129 yards rushing per game, although Buffalo is just 25th in rushing, averaging just over 96 yards per game on the ground. They will also need to have Kyle Orton and Sammy Watkins develop a connection similar to what Matt Ryan and Julio Jones had for the Atlanta Falcons Sunday night, when Ryan (375 yards and four touchdowns) and Jones (11 catches for 259 yards and a touchdown) singlehandedly kept Atlanta in the game despite a brilliant offensive performance for the Packers.
Orton was able to put up yards against the Broncos on Sunday (355 total), but two bad interceptions helped damper that performance and would also be detrimental this Sunday, while Watkins appeared to get back on track (seven catches for 127 yards), but may need an even better performance to make the Bills keep their slim postseason hopes alive.
