Buffalo Bills bloggers Matthew Schaefer and Robin Lalisse talk about the current situation of the team, the matchup against the Jets on Monday night, and what the future holds for the Bills.
Matthew: In just five days, the Buffalo Bills went from 5-3 and on top of a close playoff race in the AFC to 5-5 and just barely clinging to what are now distant playoff hopes. What do you think some of the biggest reasons have been for this two game losing streak in what is a crucial stretch of games that decide their season?
Robin: The positive narrative changed as soon as Bryce Brown fumbled the football on a promising possession in the third quarter, and Scott Chandler was unable to jump on it in the endzone. After only scoring three points on two possessions where they put up over 170 yards, and allowing Kansas City to get back into the game on one big run by Jamaal Charles, followed by a killer Leodis McKelvin fumble leading to another score, the “Same old Bills” issue came up in spades.
After only getting three field goals against Miami on Thursday night, along with Sammy Watkins only getting 7 catches for 59 yards on 17 targets (27 and 32 yards, respectively in last two games), the offense has regressed tremendously from being capable and average to be among the worst in football. It puts way too much pressure on a defense to be perfect and force turnovers, which has caused missed tackles and opportunities late in games due to fatigue and being overly aggressive.
Matthew, who has to take the biggest blame for the recent offensive struggles?
Matthew: If I had to put my finger on just one aspect, it would have to be the recent downward trend of quarterback Kyle Orton’s play. This team cannot score points in the red zone, and that ultimately comes down to your quarterback, especially with how bad the offense as a whole has been at putting points on the board. The Bills haven’t scored a touchdown in 21 possessions and counting now, a stat that needs quick changing when the Bills take on the New York Jets this weekend. A healthy Fred Jackson this week will help take some of the pressure off, but when it comes down to it, the Bills really need Orton to step up his play. It is becoming quite clear now why the guy is on his fifth career NFL team.
While the Bills aren’t mathematically eliminated, they made their playoff chances very slim already after two straight defeats. Do they at least get back in the win column this weekend when the New York Jets come to town?
Robin: It’s by no means a guarantee, as the Jets limited a very good Steelers offense to only 13 points two weeks ago, and the Bills offense had seven straight three-and-outs in the previous matchup, and never really drove down the field on that defense. With no Leodis McKelvin, Stephon Gilmore and Corey Graham will have to be able to stop Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, and New York can run the ball with Michael Vick, Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson, and Harvin, using a ball-control gameplan similar to what Miami and Kansas City did while both rushing for over 100 yards.
If Buffalo’s offense continues to struggle, they have very little chance of winning this game. With a loss this weekend, how would it affect the futures of head coach Doug Marrone, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and general manager Doug Whaley?
Matthew: As I was watching the last few weeks, I was kind of wondering out loud if head coach Doug Marrone would fire his offensive coordinator Nathan Hackett if it meant that he would keep his job. Fast forward to today, and I don’t think there is a chance anyone really stays after the off-season, unless they go on a strong run to end the campaign. Marrone and company (minus defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz) have looked in over their heads at times, and game management has been too big of an issue and taken his team out of some games. Marrone’s ultra conservative approach really does take the ball out of his team’s hands sometimes (literally, as late game punts have killed whatever little hope Buffalo had left the past two weeks) and the offense just doesn’t have much going for it. The play calling has been brutal at times, and the Bills are one of the most predicable offenses in the league. I really like Marrone as a coach and person, but it today’s NFL it is all about getting wins. He still has yet to do that and with new owner Terry Pegula and his open wallet coming into play, I think the Bills finally make a run at a big-name coach in the off-season for the first time really in franchise history. For once, Buffalo is a market people will want to come to as the talent on the field is finally above average (especially on defense) and the finances are in place to add even more talent.
I really like GM Doug Whaley, as I think he is a great evaluator of talent and a rising star at general manager in this league. The thing that hurts him though is the fact that he was heavily involved when quarterback EJ Manuel was taken in the first round a couple seasons ago. That blemish alone could be enough to show him the door, but I really hope not. I don’t think he really deserves to be canned, but he has such a large part in the problem that is Buffalo’s quarterback that it would be understandable if he was shown the door. If I was a betting man, I think Whaley has the best chance at One Bills Drive to keep his job, but complete turnover would not surprise me. I would just hate to see the Bills continue to spin their wheels with another turnover, as a new coach next year would be the 8th new coach since Marv Levy retired after the 1997 season.
Would you agree with me that if the Bills lose this week that they should turn back to quarterback EJ Manuel? It doesn’t make much sense to me to keep giving a guy starts who isn’t a part of your team’s long-term plan, when you want to see what you have out of your former first round pick anyways. If the season is over, you have to get the young guy some starts to end the year, right?
Robin: If one of the main culprits of a loss to the Jets are the same offensive struggles of the past two weeks, then the upside of starting Orton is not high enough to the point that Marrone can have any sort on confidence in getting a late season run out of him, and thus must show to ownership and the fans that E.J. Manuel has the potential to be successful with some promising play down the stretch. That way, Marrone can say that the team has a young quarterback, a young receiver (Watkins), and a very talented defense that will have Kiko Alonso, and thus deserves the customary third year to prove himself.
Marrone has to be willing to gamble down the stretch of the season, whether attempting to go for it on third down or take some shots down the field in the passing game, regardless of who is at quarterback, or ownership may not view him as a confident enough coach that the fans can believe him. Since Hackett and Marrone came together at Syracuse, both are tied at the hip, and I wouldn’t find it outside the realm of possibility that a Mike Munchak type situation arises where Marrone will not fire any of his assistants, like Munchak did after arguably an overachieving 7-9 season last year, resulting in his firing.
Matthew, what record do you see the Bills having at the end of the season, and what would be the consequences after the season of that performance?
Matthew: We all know the saying that anything can happen on any Sunday in the NFL, but for the Bills bleak playoff chances to stay alive they really need to run the table for the rest of the season. While they could start it off with wins against the Jets and Browns over the next two weeks, the season’s schedule takes a turn for the worse with games still against the Broncos, Packers and Patriots. While they could win games against Cleveland, New York and the Oakland Raiders, I don’t see them having much of a chance right now against those three powerhouse teams I mentioned before. The Packers and Patriots have been two of the hottest teams in football, and even with a loss last week, I would never bet against Peyton Manning and that high scoring attack of the Broncos.
The Bills defense is the wild-card in this, as they continue to keep their team in games with their strong play. With a few more inspired efforts and a little help from their offense, the Bills could pull the upset, but it will be awfully tough.
8-8 is how I see it shaping up, which is just a 2-game improvement over last years squad, despite being a more talented roster. I don’t think the Bills starting quarterback for 2015 is currently on their roster, and Mr. Pegula will need to make a tough choice in terms of where he wants to take his franchise. It wouldn’t shock me if he wants to hit the reset button, as in his eyes he might not view Marrone as a coach who can win him a Super Bowl, which is of course what the main goal is all along.
It is interesting though. They have been so bad for so long that a .500 season might be looked at as being the last stepping stone before they springboard into the playoffs next season. If they do finish 8-8, it will be the first time in 10 years that they will have finished with a not losing record.
What’s your pick for this game? Does Michael Vick and the New York Jets continue to show signs of life or do the Bills get back in the win column this weekend?
Robin: Because of the movement of the game and lack of practice time for the Bills, I think the Jets will take advantage of a flat Buffalo team early, get a good lead, and hold on for a 24-17 win, how about you?
Matthew: I can’t disagree with your logic, as it makes too much sense for this one. The Jets aren’t a very good football team, but with only a day or two to practice (if they even get it in) the Bills haven’t had the proper time to prepare. I would love for this snowstorm to be the adversity Buffalo needed to bring the team’s season around, but unfortunately, I don’t think that’ll be the case as this isn’t a storybook. I’ll take the Jets 14-10 in a real stinker.
