The 11-0 Green Bay Packers are 5 games away from equaling the feat that only the New England Patriots of 2007 have done before – a perfect 16-0 season. This week, they face the New York Giants, the team that ended New England’s dream of a perfect season by upsetting those same New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, turning their 16-0 start into a sadly flawed 18-1 final.
But these aren’t the 2007 New York Giants, although the 2011 Packers have a few similarities to the 2007 Patriots.
There aren’t enough superlatives in the English language to adequately describe the year quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having. He is currently leading the league with a quarterback efficiency of 127.7, which would be a single season record. He has thrown for 33 TDs and only 4 interceptions, and is on pace to challenge Tom Brady’s single season TD passing record (Rodgers is on pace for 48, the record is 50). He is also on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards, and potentially challenge the single season record held by Dan Marino of 5,084 yards set in 1984.
The only quarterbacks who have come close to playing at this level were Brady in 2007 and Manning in 2004. Since both Brady and Rodgers were chasing perfection, below is a comparison of Brady’s actual numbers from 2007 with Rodgers projected numbers through the end of the season at his current pace.
Brady, 2007 – 68.9 % completion rate, 4,806 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, efficiency 117.2
Rodgers, 2011 – 71.8 % completion rate, 5,056 yards, 48 TDs, 6 INTs, efficiency 127.7
The Packers are third in the league in passing yardage, averaging 304 yards per game. They only rush for 97 yards per game (28th in the league), but they are a pass-oriented offense, and when you throw the ball as well as Rodgers, running is not a priority. Also, they have the second worst passing defense in the league, giving up 287 yards per game, but that is primarily because everyone they have played this year has been playing from behind.
The more important numbers are scoring. Their defense is giving up 20.6 points per game, 14th in the league, and their offense is scoring 34.7 points per game, tops in the league by a comfortable margin. They are on pace to have the second highest scoring year ever by a team, again only trailing Brady’s 2007 New England Patriots. And they have the best point differential in the league at +155.
What do the Giants have to do to beat them? They would have to do largely what they did in 2007 – run the ball effectively to keep Rodgers off the field, lock down the receivers, and get pressure on Rodgers, something nobody has been successful doing all year.
Plus, the Giants normally-strong defense has been fighting injuries all season. They are currently ranked 26th against the pass and 24th against the run, and they have given up the 6th most points in the league – 25.5 per game.
This week, DE Osi Umenyiora is out with ankle and knee injuries, and DE Justin Tuck is probable but nursing an ankle injury. Safeties Derrick Martin and Antrel Rolle are both listed as probable, but they are nursing injuries as well. Linebacker Mark Herzlich is out and linebacker Michael Boley is questionable. That’s a lot of missing bodies for a defense tasked with stopping (or at least slowing down) one of the top offenses of all time.
Quarterback Eli Manning and the Giants offense have been playing well all season, but unlike 2007, they are now a pass-first offense. They are ranked 4th in the league in passing and dead last in running, averaging only 82.3 yards per game on the ground.
Unfortunately, this year’s Giants aren’t put together to take down the Packers the way they took down the 2007 Patriots. With all the injuries on defense, they can’t hope to contain and pressure Rodgers the way they did Brady. The offense can certainly move the ball, but since they are now a passing offense, they are setting up for a shootout rather than a ball control, grinding game like they used in 2007.
And in a shootout, you have to put your money on Rodgers and the Packers offense, but it could be a very fun game to watch.
