Young Gun Face Off: 2011 QBs Versus 2012

Last year, there was so much excitement around the quarterback Class of 2011 that some went so far as to compare them to the famous Class of ’83, which produced three Hall of Famers from the first round – John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.  While it is FAR too early to make that kind of comparison, a more interesting (and reasonable) comparison can be made between the Class of 2011 and the Class of 2012.

Both drafts had seven quarterbacks taken in the first 3 rounds, and both quickly produced 5 full time starters (possibly six each if Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles become starters, and Kaepernick seems to have an inside shot right now).  That’s 10-12 starting quarterbacks drafted in the last two seasons – fully a third of the teams in the NFL.  And both have produced a mixed bag in terms of results.

As a review, the 2012 NFL Draft was heavy on quarterbacks, with three taken in the top eight slots.

We’ll stop at round 3 because we have to draw the line somewhere, but Ryan Lindley, who was taken in the sixth round by Arizona, has gotten some playing time including one start for the Cardinals.  You can never neglect sixth round draft picks (that Brady guy in New England has done pretty well despite being a sixth rounder), but Lindley has only one start, 0 TDs and 4 INTs, so we’ll leave him out of the analysis for now.

The 2011 NFL Draft was also top heavy, with four quarterbacks taken in the top 12 picks.

Efficiency

In terms of passing efficiency, the best overall number for judging a quarterback’s effectiveness, only one QB from either class is in the top 10, and that’s Robert Griffin III who is currently fourth in the NFL at 104.6.  In fact, he’s only trailing Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, so he is in excellent company.

Colin Kaepernick doesn’t have enough starts to qualify this season, but he would be in the top 10, as he has a passer rating of 102 in two and a half games, which would put him in sixth just behind teammate Alex Smith’s 104.  Whatever Jim Harbaugh is doing in the Bay Area, he knows how to coach quarterbacks.

Next best, the class of 2011’s Andy Dalton comes in at number 11 (94.0) followed by 2012’s Russell Wilson at number 12 (93.9).  Then there’s a big drop after that.  Below are the quarterbacks in terms of their ranking in passer efficiency.  The numbers in parentheses are QBs with at least one start, but without enough snaps to qualify, and where they would rank if they had enough playing time:

Efficiency doesn’t tell the whole story.  Blaine Gabbert is widely considered to be a bust, and after ranking dead in efficiency last year and remaining near the bottom, but he is ranked ahead of Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill who are considered to be talented young players.  But look at the rest of their stat lines:

Blaine Gabbert – 58.3 percent complete, 1,662 yards, 9 TDs and 6 INTs

Andrew Luck – 56.8 percent complete, 3,205 yards, 13 TDs and 13 INTs

Ryan Tannehill – 59 percent complete, 2,373 yards, 7 TDs and 12 INTs

Luck is averaging 291 yards per game, while Gabbert is averaging 166.  Luck has the 7^th highest passing yards per game, tops among all the 2011/2012 QBs while Gabbert is ranked 34^th in the NFL.  If Luck can get his interceptions down, he will shoot up the charts.

Tannehill has thrown too many interceptions (although half of them came in two outings), but he is averaging a respectable 216 yards per game.  More importantly, he has Miami fighting for a playoff spot, but we’ll get to win-loss next.

Advantage 2012:  RGIII puts the class of 2012 over the top.  If Kaepernick had more starts, it would be a close race, but six of the ten qualifying quarterbacks are in the bottom 10 in the NFL (positions 23-32) so most of these players have some work to do.  Griffin, Dalton and Wilson are already well established in efficiency, and Kaepernick looks excellent so far.

Just Win, Baby

While it isn’t exactly fair, the quarterback gets a disproportionate amount of the credit and blame if his team wins or loses, so a close look at win loss record is also justified.  Numbers in parentheses are team records where the quarterback has started a minority of the games.

Once again putting Kaepernick aside (although he is 2-0 in his starts), four of these teams are well positioned for a playoff shot, as Luck has the Colts at 7-4, and Seattle, Cincinnati and Minnesota are all at 6-5.  Tannehill and Griffin have Miami and Washington alive at 5-6.

Advantage 2012 (barely):  Of the six teams still alive, four of them are led by 2012 quarterbacks and two by 2011 quarterbacks.  The Class of 2012 gets bonus points here for Luck’s performance.  Taking the last placed team from last season and having them as the best Wild Card seed right now is notable.

OVERALL

Right now, the class of 2012 is outperforming the vaunted class of 2011, although there is plenty to like about both of the QB classes.

Kaepernick seems poised to keep the starting job and lead the 49ers into the playoffs, and he has the talent to become an elite NFL quarterback one day, like a faster Ben Roethlisberger.  Cam Newton is having a sophomore slump, but is still on pace for almost 4,000 passing yards and 650 rushing yards, so that’s a slump most teams would love to have.  Luck and RGIII both have elite talent as well, and Wilson and Dalton have continued to look impressive.

The current batch of elite quarterbacks are still setting the standard, but NFL fans have plenty to look forward to over the next 10 years as this group develops and kicks in the door.  But for now, “elite” is still a short list, specifically Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, the Manning Boys and Ben Roethlisberger.