With just 3 weeks left after this weekend, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Two teams have locked up their divisions – the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers – but most of the rest of the league still has work to do to get in. Here’s a brief summary of where we are, and some forecasts going into Week 14.
NFC
Packers and 49ers have won their divisions. In the NFC South, the Saints have a two game lead over the Atlanta Falcons. The teams do have one head-to-head game left, in Week 16 on the day after Christmas, but the Saints have been playing strong football, and in addition to the Falcons, they play the 7-5 Titans, 4-8 Panthers and 2-10 Vikings. Atlanta would have to win the head to head, and hope for the Saints to stumble badly.
The NFC East is the most up-for-grabs division in the conference, with the Cowboys holding a 1 game lead over the Giants. The two play this weekend, and again in Week 17 on New Year’s Day. The head-to-head matchups will probably decide this, but if everything splits, the Cowboys do have the 1 game advantage . Besides their two head-to-head matchups, the Giants have the Jets and Redskins, and the Cowboys have the Bucs and Eagles. Overall strength of schedule is about equivalent, so give the advantage to the Cowboys. Giants almost have to sweep the Cowboys to get in.
As of today – Wild Card slots will go to the Falcons and Bears, so the runner up in the NFC East is probably out of the playoffs.
AFC
The AFC is a bit more competitive, with nobody locking up a division title yet. In the AFC Central, there’s a real battle as the 10-3 Steelers have a half game lead on the 9-3 Ravens. Baltimore has the advantage since they swept the season series. The Steelers have one tough game left against the 49ers, plus the Rams and the Browns again, who played them very tight this weekend. The Ravens have an easier schedule (Colts, Chargers, Browns, Bengals) plus the tie breaker, so it looks like the Ravens for the division and the Steelers for the top Wild Card spot. The second Wild Card slot is going to be wildly competitive.
In the East, the 9-3 Patriots have a two game lead over the 7-5 Jets, and seem to be playing well enough to lock up the division. They have some tough games down the stretch against the Broncos and Dolphins – two teams that should be playoff teams based on the way they are playing right now. But the Dolphins 0-7 start has them out of contention, and the Broncos are in a dogfight after the 1-4 Orton start, but still have a solid shot.
The Jets schedule is tough down the stretch as well (Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Dolphins) and the Pats swept their head-to-head, so figure that the Pats take the division and the Jets have to try to fight for the last Wild Card slot. There are five 7-win teams in contention for that last Wild Card spot.
Houston has a two game lead over the Titans in the South, and with their defense and running game, they figure to hold on to the division even though they are down to third string QB rookie T.J. Yates. The two meet up in the last game of the season, but the rest of the Texans schedule is pretty forgiving (Bengals, Panthers, Colts) and they figure to have the division locked up by then.
Finally – the most interesting division in football, if not the strongest, is the AFC West. Tebow is 6-1 as a starter, putting the Broncos in first place with a tie breaker over the Oakland Raiders, with both teams at 7-5. Both teams have some tough games left. The Raiders face the Packers, Lions, Chiefs and Chargers, while the Broncos face the Bears, Patriots, Bills and Chiefs. We expect both teams to go 2-2 down the stretch, giving the division to the Broncos at 9-7. And if Tebow gets into the playoffs – who knows what could happen.
