Earlier this season, the San Francisco 49ers visited the New England Patriots in a marquee match-up on Sunday Night Football. It struck me as odd when watching this game, because of the comparisons to the 49er QB “controversy” of today with Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith and the 2001 Patriots when Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe. In my opinion, it was a cheap comparison that does not stand up to even a cursory examination.
Let’s recap the 49er situation for a moment. The 49ers 2011 season ended in the NFC Championship game. They entered the 2012 season as a legitimate contender to win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl. Their starting quarterback, Alex Smith, was injured in a week 10 tie to the Saint Louis Rams. Colin Kaepernick, a 2nd year QB, started in week 11 and was impressive in the win on the road against the Bears. Smith was healthy enough to be active week 12 but did not start in the win against the New Orleans Saints. Coach Jim Harbaugh has decided to start Kaepernick in lieu of Smith since.
Now let’s go back and revisit the 2001 Patriots. The Patriots finished Bill Belichick’s first year as head coach, 2000, at 5-11 and last place in the AFC East. Entering 2001, the Patriots were not expected to do anything. With Bledsoe firmly entrenched as starting quarterback, the Patriots started 0-2. Bledsoe was injured late in the 4th quarter of the 2nd game of the season. Brady, an inexperienced 2nd year QB, entered and went 5-2 over the next 7 games.
The first game Bledsoe returned from injury was week 10 against their future Super Bowl foe, and the greatest show on turf, St. Louis Rams. The Rams were the best team in the NFL and Belichick decided to go with the hot hand. The Patriots at this point were considered an upstart team, a threat to make the playoffs but no one, not even in New England, considered them Super Bowl contenders. They lost a close game to the Rams in week 10 but it would be their last loss of the season. Since Belichick never explains his reasoning, we can only speculate but my guess is he went with Brady for several reasons. First, the Patriots offense was working well with a conservative approach and Bledsoe was known as more of a gunslinger. Second, and more importantly for this discussion, with no expectations he could develop his young QB for the future and still make an attempt at making the playoffs.
As you can see, the two scenarios are not really similar. Belichick had 7 weeks to evaluate Brady as a starter, and the Patriots were in more of a rebuilding mode than a contender. Harbaugh on the other hand, had only one game with Smith inactive. The 49ers started the year as a contender for the Super Bowl and that distinction remains. Smith was also injured much later in the season after starting 6-2-1.
The need for people to draw comparisons to past events is strong. We all like to do it. Relating current events to past ones help us manage the chaos. Yet this comparison feels forced. Harbaugh and the 49ers arguably made a much more difficult decision as they had lofty expectations before Smith got injured. Belichick, on the other hand, did not have the added pressure of winning now when he decided to go with Brady. That is a crucial distinction.
Unfortunately, for those people who do like to make comparisons, I’m not sure there is one for 49ers situation, at least not one I can remember.
Will Harbaugh’s decision to start Kaepernick turn out as well as Belichick’s decision to go with Brady? Only time will tell, but don’t pretend that the two coaches were in the same situation.
