A day after the NFL owners approved the sale of the Jaguars to Shahid Khan, the team takes the field for a prime time matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night. The 8-5 Falcons need to keep their foot planted on the gas for the playoffs, as they are currently sitting in the 5th seed in the NFC, but with the Lions also at 8-5, and the Cowboys and Bears breathing down their necks at 7-6.
The Falcons have been playing very solid football. Since the beginning of October, they are 7-3 with their only losses coming against undefeated Green Bay, 10-3 New Orleans, and the 10-3 Houston Texans. Atlanta has been winning the games they are supposed to win, and Thursday night’s matchup definitely falls into that category. They seem well positioned to keep winning and to stay in their current playoff position.
The Falcons are 13th in total offense behind the passing of Matt Ryan, who has thrown for 3,474 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, and the running of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 1,068 yards, third in the NFL. Ryan is coming off one of his best games, as he was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week this week for his 22 of 38, 320 yard, 4 TD performance in last week’s 31-23 win over the Carolina Panthers.
The Jaguars are solid on paper and would figure to give the Falcons a tough battle, except they have had one glaring weakness all season. It’s not the running game, where Maurice Jones-Drew is leading the league in rushing with 1,222 yards, along with 348 receiving yards and 10 combined touchdowns. And it’s definitely not the defense, where the Jaguars are fourth in the league in total defense, giving up only 302 yards per game. But the Jaguars are 4-9 and possess the last-ranked passing game in the NFL behind rookie Blaine Gabbert.
Since his debut at the end of the Jets game in Week 2, Gabbert has only completed more than 60 percent of his passes once – against the winless Colts. His season average is 50.3 percent and he is last in the league in passing efficiency at 65.3.
The Jaguars are coming off their best team performance of the season, a 41-14 blowout of the Buccaneers. Jones-Drew scored four touchdowns – 2 on the ground, and 2 through the air – and the Jaguars scored on two fumble recoveries – one by the defense and one on special teams.
The Jaguars defense matches up well against the Falcons offense, and could keep the score low and keep the game competitive. Ultimately, it comes down to Gabbert playing well enough to force the Falcons to respect the pass. If he doesn’t, Atlanta can put 8 or 9 defenders in the box to key on Jones-Drew, and that would make for a long night. As it stands, Atlanta is much better at stuffing the run (5th in the league) than at stopping the pass (22nd in the league).
Gabbert needs to step up with a big game in primetime. If he can complete 60 percent of his passes for over 200 yards, the Jaguars have a chance for the upset. If not, regardless of what Jones-Drew and the defense can do, the Falcons look to keep on winning.
