The current standings in the AFC East put the New England Patriots on top, followed by the Dolphins in second, the Jets in third, and the Bills in last place. While it is far too early to know who will win the division, particularly in the AFC East were one win separates first place from last place, it’s never too early to make predictions.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are in first place in the division, but at a disappointing 4-3. Despite that, they have the second largest point differential in the entire conference at +54 – when they win, they win big; but when they lose, it is very close. Their three losses are by a total of four points. Even though they are barely over 0.500 with a 4-3 record, they have a perfect 2-0 record in the division. The key to the Patriots offense still rests heavily on their QB Tom Brady, but they have been far more balanced this year with a rejuvenated ground game. They are 5th in the league in both rushing and passing. Their potential Achilles Heel is their defense – they are 29th in the league against the pass. The Patriots are first in the league in total offense, and they will go exactly as far as their offense will carry them. It may not be enough to get them back to the Super Bowl unless their defense improves in the second half, but it is enough to win the division. They are still the odds-on favorites.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins went on a roll in the second half of last season, so although they were viewed as a long shot, they are right in the hunt. They are only half a game behind the Patriots, although they are 0-1 in the division so they will probably have to win the division outright if they are going to take it. Four of their six games have been decided by 4 points or less, and two of their three losses were in overtime. Their only non-overtime loss was to the 6-1 Houston Texans, so they have been very competitive all year. The Dolphins have the 28th ranked passing defense, and are susceptible to an aerial attack, which is dangerous in a division with Tom Brady. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has shown some promise, but the Dolphins passing attack is ranked 21st in the league and Tannehill is 29th in passer efficiency with 4 TDs and 6 INTs. The Dolphins have the easiest schedule overall, but they still have five division games left, including two games against the Patriots, and they also have San Francisco and Seattle on their schedule. If the Dolphins want to make a run at the division, they will have to win their division games and beat the Patriots head-to-head at least once. It’s probably a year too early for the Dolphins to seriously threaten the Patriots for the division, but they stand a chance at a Wild Card slot.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills started the year with a lot of optimism, but they have been struggling all season, particularly on defense. After spending a fortune in free agency on Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, to play up front alongside last season’s number three overall draft pick Marcell Dareus, the Bills defense is dead last against the run and 31st overall. If you play fantasy football, whichever running back is playing against the Bills is a safe bet. Their running game is the one bright spot for the team, fourth in the league with over 150 yards per game, but their passing game has been spotty (30th overall) despite re-signing Ryan Fitzpatrick (9 interceptions this season) and his favorite target Stevie Johnson in the offseason. The strong running game with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller is not enough to overcome the holes on this team. They are technically still in the hunt at 3-4, but are 0-2 in the division and they’ve had trouble finishing games, including surrendering a late lead against Tennessee last week. They figure to drop out of the running in the second half.
New York Jets
The New York Jets are still in the hunt as well at 3-4, but they rank 29th in total offense, and 30th against the run in defense. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has the lowest QB rating in the division (worse than the rookie Tannehill and Fitzpatrick with his 9 interceptions) with a 74.6 passer rating, putting him 30th overall out of 32 teams in the league. The chants for Tebow are only going to get louder. The Jets lost cornerback Darrelle Revis, possibly the best defensive player in the league, who was placed on injured-reserve, creating a hole which is impossible to fill. Their offensive problems, the loss of Revis, and a tough upcoming schedule including games against Seattle, New England and Arizona, makes the Jets more likely to be challenging the Bills for the basement of the division rather than fighting the Patriots for the division title.
Written by Alea Pettrone
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