The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins are on two totally different sides of the spectrums in regards to their 2015 season. New England (12-3) will wrap up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a win on Sunday. On the other hand, Miami (5-10) has nothing to play for other than pride as they have had a disappointing season.
With the addition of Ndamukong Suh and signing quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a large contract extension, the Dolphins were expected to compete for a playoff spot but that hasn’t been the case. After firing then head coach Joe Philbin after Week 4, the team is just 4-7 under interim head coach Dan Campbell.
Miami holds a 52-48 series advantage against New England. The last time the two teams met, the Patriots destroyed the Dolphins 36-7 in Foxborough, Mass. on Oct. 29.
New England at Miami
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. EST
TV: CBS
Spread: New England -10.5
Three Things to Watch
1. New England’s offense
Without Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, the Patriots offense hasn’t had the spark that it did earlier this season. Against a team like the Dolphins, it will be a good opportunity for quarterback Tom Brady and the offense to find some rhythm heading into the postseason.
With Edelman in the lineup, Brady has thrown for 2,804 yards, 23 touchdowns against only two interceptions and he had a completion percentage of 68.7. Without him, Brady has thrown 1,832 yards, 13 touchdowns, five interceptions and has a completion percentage of 59.4.
Last week against the New York Jets, Brady was forced to hold on to the ball longer for receivers to gain separation from defenders. Injuries have slowed down New England’s offense, but Miami’s secondary has struggled all season against the deep ball.
The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most touchdown passes in the league and are 25th in yards allowed per game. So the opportunities to connect on big plays should present themselves this Sunday.
2. Dolphins Offensive Line
Miami’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries all season long. Ja’Wuan James hasn’t played since the Dolphins and Patriots first matchup because of a toe injury and now Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey has been out since their game in San Diego because of an ankle injury.
Rookie Jamil Douglas started last week in place of Pouncey, but he struggled mightily as guard is his natural position.
Expect the Patriots to throw a lot of blitzes at the Dolphins offensive line to confuse them. With the beating Tannehill took last week against the Indianapolis Colts, it is important for the Dolphins to protect their possible long-term investment.
3. Patriots rushing defense
With the Colts sacking Tannehill six times Sunday, the Dolphins might want to feed the ball to running back Lamar Miller against the Patriots. The problem with that is, New England has a stout rushing defense.
The Patriots are ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing defense as they give up an average of 98.9 yards per game. When the Dolphins have chosen to use Miller this season, he has had some big plays for them. Against the New York Giants on Dec. 14, Miller had a dazzling 38-yard run for a touchdown.
While the Patriots have shown they can stop the run, their defense will have to be aware of Miller’s home run running abilities.
Final Analysis
There have been years where the Patriots have had the No.1 seed in the AFC locked up by Week 17, but this year isn’t one of those times. New England knows they have to win, but they don’t have to crush the Dolphins.
Expect the Patriots to walk the line between playing hard and resting their players. They could be up by double-digits in the fourth quarter, so they could take Brady and a lot of their starters out by that point.
Miami should cover the spread but expect the Patriots to run away with a convincing victory at Sun Life Stadium.
Prediction: New England 31, Miami 23
You can follow Antwan on Twitter @antwanstaley
